Verisk puts hurricane Helene industry loss at $6bn to $11bn, excluding NFIP

Hurricane Helene is estimated to drive private market insurance and reinsurance industry losses in a range from $6 billion to as high as $11 billion by Verisk.

Verisk’s initial estimate for hurricane Helene is based on industry insured losses due to wind, storm surge and hurricane precipitation induced flood in the US, but does not include any NFIP losses.

It can therefore be compared to the one from Moody’s RMS Event Response, which estimated private market insurance industry losses from hurricane Helene will be in a range from $8 billion to as much as $14 billion, with an $11 billion best estimate.

Other data points to compare with include Karen Clark & Company which had estimated private wind and surge losses at close to $6.4 billion.

As well as CoreLogic which updated its insurance market loss estimate for hurricane Helene to include losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), putting the total in a range from $10.5 billion to as much as $17.5 billion. CoreLogic’s estimate for the private market is between $6 billion and $11 billion.

Across all those private market loss estimates, the average is currently $8.6 billion.

“The devastation and loss of life caused by Hurricane Helene is truly heartbreaking,” Rob Newbold, president of Verisk Extreme Event Solutions said. “This event is a reminder to the insurance industry to remain diligent in efforts to learn from and understand the profound impacts of catastrophes. The resilience of communities facing such devastating challenges is remarkable and we are inspired by how they have already started to rebuild and prepare for a safer future. We are committed to supporting recovery efforts however we can.”

It’s worth noting that, Verisk’s loss estimates do not include:

Losses paid out by the National Flood Insurance Program
Losses exacerbated by litigation, fraudulent assignment of benefits, or social inflation
Storm surge or inland flood losses paid on wind only policies due to government intervention
Explicit modeling of losses due to landslides or mudslides
Losses to inland marine, ocean-going marine cargo and hull, and pleasure boats
Losses to uninsured properties
Losses to infrastructure
Losses from extra-contractual obligations
Losses from hazardous waste cleanup, vandalism, or civil commotion, whether directly or indirectly caused by the event
Losses resulting from the compromise of existing defenses (e.g., natural and man-made levees)
Loss adjustment expenses
Other non-modeled losses, including those resulting from tornadoes spawned by the storm
Losses for U.S. offshore assets and non-U.S. property

Also read:

– Hurricane Helene privately insured losses estimated $8bn to $14bn by Moody’s RMS.
– Hurricane Helene insured loss estimate now $10.5bn – $17.5bn including NFIP: CoreLogic.
– Reinsurers (and ILS) can absorb any hurricane Helene losses within earnings: S&P.
– Hurricane Helene private/public insured losses likely at least in higher single-digit billions: Aon.
– Some nerves evident as Helene’s Florida claims outpace Idalia, State Farm’s outpace Ian, & on NFIP.
– Hurricane Helene insurance industry loss estimated close to $6.4bn by KCC.
– Direct cat bond losses still seen unlikely from Helene, but NFIP bonds monitored: Twelve Capital.
– Hurricane Helene floods over 100k buildings, at least 10k to over 5 feet: ICEYE.
– Hurricane Helene insured losses anywhere from mid-single to even double-digit billions: RBC.
– Florida reinsurance dependency in focus after Helene, with $5bn+ loss expected: AM Best.
– FEMA’s NFIP reinsurance & cat bonds in focus after catastrophic flooding from Helene.
– Hurricane Helene private insurance loss seen mid-to-high single-digit billions: Bowen, Gallagher Re.
– Hurricane Helene economic loss in $20bn – $34bn range: Moody’s Analytics.
– Hurricane Helene insured wind/surge property loss in Florida/Georgia initially said $3bn – $5bn: CoreLogic.
– Losses to per-occurrence cat bonds from hurricane Helene currently seen as unlikely: Twelve Capital.
– Hurricane Helene landfall at Cat 4 140mph winds, Tampa Bay sees historic surge flooding.
– Hurricane Helene industry loss seen $3bn to $6bn if Tampa avoided: Gallagher Re.
– Minimal to no cat bond impact expected from hurricane Helene if track unchanged: Plenum.