TSR raises hurricane season forecast again, predicts 4 Cat 1+ US landfalls

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has again raised its forecast for activity levels during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with an additional hurricane expected and a prediction that now four Category 1 or stronger storms will make landfall in the United States.

Back in April, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued a forecast for 22 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, with an expected Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 217.

A month later, in May, TSR updated the forecast to call for 24 named tropical storms, 12 of which are forecast to become hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes, with the ACE index forecast to reach 226, warning of a hyperactive season.

Now, the forecast numbers for this hurricane season have been raised again by TSR, with 26 named tropical storms, 13 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes expected and seasonal ACE of 240.

The TSR forecast update said it, “continues to anticipate a hyper-active season with activity almost double the 1991-2020 climate norm.”

Adding, “Very high oceanic heat content across the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters is expected to continue throughout the hurricane season. Weak La Niña conditions are very likely to develop and persist through August-September 2024 and into the autumn. Although some uncertainties remain, especially regarding intra-seasonal elements, these two factors are both expected to have a strong enhancing influence on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.”

Of course, we have now had hurricane Beryl to contend with, which has ticked off one major storm quite early in the season, so it’s perhaps a little surprising the forecast number for major hurricanes has not increased as well.

TSR said, “With both primary climate factors very likely to be strongly enhancing for hurricane activity in 2024 combined with the unprecedented development of a category 4 hurricane in June east of the Caribbean, the confidence in the forecast for a very active hurricane season is higher than what the moderate skill scores would imply.”

Another notable change since May, is that back then the TSR forecast team was calling for 5 tropical storms and 4 hurricane landfalls in the United States this season.

Those figures have now been increased to 7 tropical storms and 5 hurricanes, suggesting an increased threat to the US coastline.

The TSR team further qualified this by saying, “Whilst a very active hurricane season does not guarantee high hurricane landfall impacts there is a modest correlation with total seasonal ACE and U.S. landfalling ACE, so we expect U.S. landfalling hurricane activity to be higher than normal to high probability.”

Incorporating the latest updated TSR forecast figures, alongside those others we track, makes little change to our Artemis Average forecast for the 2024 hurricane season, of 23 named storms, 12 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, but the seasonal ACE Index score has now increased to 220 which is more than double the seasonal average.

Track the 2024 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.