TSR raises hurricane forecast, expects above average landfalls

Tropical Storm Risk, one of the insurance and reinsurance industry supported forecast teams, has raised its prediction for activity levels in the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, while saying landfall chances are above normal as well.

Previously, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) had called for a chance of “enhanced late season activity,” while calling for 18 named tropical storms to form, 8 of which were forecast to become hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes of Category 3 wind speeds or higher.

Now, that forecast has been elevated slightly at the latest update, to 18 named storms, now 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is forecast to be 150 by TSR, which is again higher than the 140 of its June hurricane forecast.

Explaining dynamics in the Atlantic basin, TSR said, “The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) July forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2022 continues to anticipate a season with above-norm activity. Although significant uncertainties remain, we consider that the more likely scenario is for tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters to be slightly warmer than normal by August-September 2022, and for weak La Niña conditions to persist through August-September 2022 and into the autumn, contributing to reduced trade winds over the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Both these factors are expected to enhance North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2022.”

In addition, the forecasters continue to warn of the potential for late season Atlantic hurricane activity to be enhanced, due to La Niña.

“Some Niño 3.4 forecast models predict a slight strengthening of the current La Niña conditions through autumn 2022, which if verified, will increase the chance of enhanced late season activity,” the forecasters said.

Also highlighting the recent formation of Bonnie as another potential signal, “An additional factor favouring high activity in 2022 is the unusual early development of a potential tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) in June.”

In terms of US landfalling storms, the TSR forecast team opt for 4 tropical storms and 2 hurricanes, which is above both long and near-term averages for hurricanes, while above the long-term for tropical storms, but slightly below the near-term 10-year average of 4.4.

With this latest forecast now added to our page where you can track the season as it develops and access tracking maps and other storm specific information as they form, our Artemis average still sits at an active 19 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) slightly higher at now 159.

Track the 2022 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.