QBE Predictor forecasts England to cruise to victory in Rome

Authored by Sandra Villanueva, QBE, Senior Media Relations Manager

According to forecasts by QBE Business Insurance, England are set to extend their unbeaten run against the Azzurri when the two teams face off in Rome on Sunday.

The Predictor is saying that England have a 98% chance of victory compared to Italy at just 2%. The match is predicted to finish 7-40 to England; a result that would align with previous results in this fixture – dating back to 2000 the average score between the two when playing in Italy is 12-38.

Although the Predictor sees England easily defeating the Italians, the overall predictions have changed significantly because of last week’s results. Both England and Italy now have no chance of winning the Grand Slam with England’s chances of a Triple Crown having also vanished with defeat in Edinburgh. The Predictor does not anticipate any Grand Slam or Triple Crown winner this year; although England are still second favourites to win the Championship. The Predictor gives England a 32% chance of being crowned Six Nations champions – only 2% behind Ireland who are now considered most likely to win.

David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said:

“The QBE Predictor has responded to England’s disappointment at Murrayfield and reduced its chances of winning the Championship. Although the Grand Slam and Triple Crown are now out of England’s reach the Predictor still gives them a reasonable chance of success in the tournament and this will start with a bounce-back performance against Italy this weekend.”

“The formula predicts an 89% probability that no-one will win the Grand Slam with only three teams left in the running. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for any outcome, the teams should be prepared to take advantage of any unlikely occurrences and opportunities. This year’s Championship should continue to provide an exciting spectacle for fans.”

The QBE Predictor is calculated using a complex mathematical formula and computer model by catastrophe planners at QBE. The Predictor applies techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as natural disasters and simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain.