NOAA forecasts 40% chance of near-normal 2023 hurricane season

The US weather service NOAA has released its forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a 40% chance of a near normal season, in terms of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic basin.

In addition, NOAA says the chance the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is above, or below, normal is an equal 30%.

NOAA’s hurricane forecast for the 2023 season calls for between 12 and 17 named tropical storms, with from 5 to 9 of those becoming hurricanes.

In addition, between 1 and 4 of the hurricanes that form are forecast to reach major category 3 or higher wind speeds.

The forecast is not that different to the others that we track here at Artemis and adding NOAA’s numbers to our data gives an average forecast for 13 named tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes in the 2023 season.

With the Pacific transitioning to what could be a relatively strong El Nino state, there remains uncertainty over the Atlantic season forecasts still, due to particularly high Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

As we reported before, some hurricane forecasts for 2023 are pointing to the chance of elevated risk for the US eastern seaboard, including Florida.

Meanwhile, BMS Senior Meteorologist Andrew Siffert noted that historical data would suggest an El Nino year might be a quieter one for hurricane impacts, but highlighted data points that suggest the industry will need to remain on-watch for storm development in certain areas, including close in to the US southeast and Florida.

NOAA’s scientists highlighted favourable patterns, in terms of wind shear and wind patterns, as well as warmer sea surface temperatures.

Saying that warmer sea temperatures are as likely to hold on as El Nino for the duration of the tropical season this year.

So a great deal of uncertainty ahead, it seems, with as usual the direction and track of any storms that form and intensify, plus landfall locations and population and insured exposure density there, being the really critical items for interests in the insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) markets to watch through the season.

Track the 2023 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.