NOAA declares end of La Nina

13 March 2023

The US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says the tropical Pacific Ocean-atmosphere system has transitioned to neutral, marking the end of the most-recent La Nina event.

The body says the most recent weekly measurement of sea surface temperature was recorded at -0.2°C following a month-long trend below the La Nina threshold of -0.5°C.

It says atmospheric changes have been slower, with increased rain and clouds expected over Indonesia and the central Pacific, but these conditions will diminish in a few weeks.

Observed rain patterns from December last year to February showed increased rain throughout northern Australia, the northern island of New Zealand, and the Maritime continent.

NOAA says the forecaster consensus expects neutral conditions to remain throughout the coming months before a likely transition to El Nino later in the year.

A recent report from the Climate Council warned that Australia was “primed to burn” as increased vegetation from La Nina conditions spelled an increased risk for uncontrollable fires in the future.