NFIP payments for hurricane Ian only $793m so far, as claims inflow slows

According to the latest data from the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), insured claims paid by its National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) from recent major hurricane Ian have only reached $793 million so far.

Claims paid by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) for property damage after hurricane Ian’s floods and storm surge have risen 56% in the last fortnight, or 22% in the last week.

At the same time, the influx of claims appears to have slowed dramatically, with FEMA reporting that as of November 28th, some 44,700 hurricane Ian claims have been filed by NFIP policyholders.

So that’s only a 1.4% increase in claims filed over the last fortnight, or just a 0.7% increase in the last week of record.

Showing that the influx of claims for hurricane Ian’s flooding has slowed dramatically and while the quantum of NFIP insurance claims paid is still rising fast, it has a long way to go to get into the loss estimate FEMA announced a few weeks back.

As a reminder, FEMA issued an estimate on November 10th, of the flood insurance claims for the NFIP from hurricane Ian, giving a range of $3.5 billion to $5.3 billion.

At that level of losses, within that estimated range, the FEMA sponsored FloodSmart Re catastrophe bonds wouldn’t be triggered, but some of the NFIP’s reinsurance arrangements beneath them are deemed likely to attach.

Since that estimate was released, the outstanding FloodSmart Re catastrophe bonds have all seen a relatively significant recovery in their valuations on secondary market price sheets.

However, some of the NFIP’s cat bonds are still being considered at-risk, with mark-downs remaining around the 30% to 40% for certain of the riskier names in the FloodSmart Re cat bond series.

Which suggests they aren’t out of the woods yet, as far as possible losses due to hurricane Ian go.

With the claims inflow slowing though, it now all comes down to the quantum of claims payment and the number of claims that require payments against them, which seems likely to take time to become clear at the slow pace being seen so far.

Meaning any further recoveries of value for the FloodSmart Re cat bonds might be a way off now, until greater clarity emerges over the NFIP’s eventual loss from Ian.

In total, some $2.97 billion in federal grants, disaster loans and flood insurance payments have been provided to Florida and to homeowners in the state since hurricane Ian by FEMA.