Nat cat losses in the first half driven by severe thunderstorms and flooding – Munich Re

Nat cat losses in the first half driven by severe thunderstorms and flooding – Munich Re | Insurance Business New Zealand

Reinsurance

Nat cat losses in the first half driven by severe thunderstorms and flooding – Munich Re

These, along with two earthquakes, resulted in losses of more than US$100 billion

Reinsurance

By
Kenneth Araullo

Severe thunderstorms and flooding significantly contributed to natural disaster losses in the first half of 2024, according to Munich Re’s analysis.

The report indicates that global losses reached $120 billion, a decrease from the $140 billion recorded in the same period last year. However, the figures still exceed the 10-year and 30-year averages.

Notably, insured losses rose slightly to $60 billion, with a substantial portion attributed to “non-peak perils” such as thunderstorms, flooding, and forest fires, accounting for 68% of total losses and 76% of insured losses.

One of the costliest disasters was an earthquake in Japan on New Year’s Day, with a magnitude of 7.5. It resulted in total losses of around $10 billion, including $2 billion in insured losses. The event highlights Japan’s readiness for such disasters through measures like earthquake-resistant construction and early-warning systems.

Munich Re emphasized the importance of these preventive measures in mitigating the impact of natural disasters.

In the United States, severe thunderstorms were a major driver of losses. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported 1,250 tornadoes from January to June, significantly above the long-term average of 820.

The first half of 2024 ranks as the fourth-costliest year for severe thunderstorm losses in the US, totaling $45 billion, with over $34 billion insured. This compares to $52 billion in total losses, including $40 billion in insured losses, for the same period last year.

Global temperatures have also reached unprecedented levels, with an average temperature increase of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels from January to June. This trend suggests the continuing impact of climate change, which is linked to extreme weather events.

For example, temperatures exceeded 50°C in parts of Saudi Arabia, and New Delhi, India, recorded a high of 49.9°C. The NOAA forecasts that 2024 could be one of the five warmest years on record, with a 60% probability of being the warmest year ever.

Munich Re’s chief climate scientist, Ernst Rauch (pictured above), noted that the increasing frequency of weather-related natural disasters is an indication of the ongoing changes in climate.

“When the atmosphere is one degree warmer, it can absorb 7% more moisture – which means more energy for weather extremes and heavy precipitation. Thanks to its leading risk expertise, Munich Re is capable of covering natural disaster-related risks on a large scale. We laid the groundwork for that expertise 50 years ago, when we hired our first meteorologist,” Rauch said.

Looking ahead, the North Atlantic is expected to experience an active hurricane season, with high water temperatures and the absence of El Niño’s dampening effects contributing to favorable conditions for hurricane formation. The sea surface temperature remains at record levels, which could result in more hurricanes.

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