Large commercial claims could push flood losses past $2 billion: Marsh

Major commercial claims which have not yet been lodged could see insured losses for the Queensland/NSW flood catastrophe overtake a $2 billion estimate, says broker Marsh.

S&P Global Ratings predicted earlier this week that losses of $1 billion were likely and they could reach $2 billion.

More than 67,000 claims have now been received and the Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) says these are 82% domestic property with the remainder motor losses.

Marsh MD Head of Placement Asia Pacific John Donnelly says the $2 billion figure may prove conservative due to large commercial losses, and it may take weeks for larger clients such as retailers and hardware chains to assess the damage.

“If I was guessing, [$2 billion] could be on the low side,” Mr Donnelly said.

“Domestic insurance losses will be the major part of it but the thing that will impact the business that we do most will be the commercial losses.

“Our clients cannot get near their premises at the moment to be able to have a look at what those losses might be.”

Mr Donnelly told insuranceNEWS.com.au the catastrophe comes just as the insurance market was showing signs of stability.

“The market was starting to be in better shape for clients than it had been for quite some time, and the last thing anybody needed – clients and the insurers – was a thumping great catastrophe loss.

“How affected the market is going to be, I think we are a week or a couple of weeks away from that, seeing what the size of losses are.

“We are hopeful that the market, if it is looking to do anything in terms of premiums, that it would be restricted to those who have losses.

“For those who have not had a loss – if the insurance market was going to show improved conditions we would be hopeful they would still benefit from that.”

ICA says insurers have received 67,537 claims, which is a 12% increase on yesterday. Based on previous similar losses the ICA estimates the current insured loss at about $1 billion.

CEO Andrew Hall welcomes comments by National Recovery and Resilience Agency (NRRA) head Shane Stone, who has called for a review of land use planning arrangements.

Mr Hall is in Canberra today to attend a meeting of emergency service ministers and agencies along with other stakeholders.

“The impacts of this event across two states are still coming into focus, and we are particularly concerned about the community of Lismore who have been absolutely devastated,” Mr Hall said.

“An army of insurance assessors are already on the ground helping with claims where it is safe to do so, and we are working closely with all levels of government and community to see this happen as quickly as possible.

“This event has just reinforced the need for a national conversation about what we build and where we build it, and to that end I welcome comments by NRRA head Shane Stone today and look forward to taking up this issue with state and federal governments in coming months.”