Hurricane Milton insured loss estimated $30bn to $50bn (excl. NFIP): Verisk

Another estimate for insurance and reinsurance industry losses from hurricane Milton has been released, with Verisk saying it anticipates the private market insured loss will fall in a range from $30 billion to as much as $50 billion.

Verisk’s Extreme Event Solutions group said that its industry loss estimate is based on losses due to wind, privately insured estimates of storm surge, and privately insured precipitation induced flood losses resulting from Milton’s landfall in Florida.

The majority of the insured loss total is attributable to wind, the company said.

Notably, this excludes any losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).

In terms of post-landfall loss estimates from the leading risk modelling specialists, this new estimate from Verisk can be compared to an estimate of between $35 billion and $55 billion from RMS (also excluding the NFIP), and an estimate for hurricane Milton’s privately insured losses to be close to $36 billion (also excluding the NFIP) from Karen Clark & Company (KCC).

Looking across all the estimates we’ve received so far, including those from some insurance-linked securities (ILS) specialists, the current range remains wide, being from almost $27 billion at the low-end up to almost $51 billion at the high-end, with a mid-point currently at almost $35 billion.

Taking out any NFIP estimates changes the range slightly, to $26 billion to $49 billion, with a mid-point of almost $34 billion.

“The U.S. is once again faced with recovering from a devastating hurricane that tragically took the lives of many individuals,” Rob Newbold, president of Verisk Extreme Event Solutions commented. “We are committed to learning from these events to support the safety, security and resilience of the people and communities affected, and of others across the world.”

Verisk also explained that, “While Milton is expected to have a significantly higher insured loss tally than Helene, the difference between the events insured losses is driven in large part by the lower take up rates on flooding in areas impacted by Helene, particularly inland areas impacted by precipitation-induced flooding.

“Verisk’s modeling of both storms indicates that the overall levels of damage between the two events are comparable but given much higher proportion of loss due to wind from Milton, a far higher percentage of the potentially insurable loss will be paid out by the insurance industry.”

Verisk’s industry loss estimate only includes losses to onshore residential, commercial, and industrial properties and automobiles for their building, contents, and time element coverage, as well as the impact of demand surge.

Read all of our hurricane Milton coverage.