Hurricane Francine privately insured loss estimated close to $1.5bn: KCC

Private insurance market losses from recent hurricane Francine have been initially estimated as close to $1.5 billion by catastrophe risk modelling specialist Karen Clark & Company (KCC).

As we reported last week, the market was expecting early estimates to fall in a range of around $1 billion to as much as $3 billion, depending on inclusion of public losses as well as private.

Gallagher Re, the reinsurance broker, was the first to come out with a forecast for hurricane Francine’s insurance market loss potential, saying it anticipated it falling in the low single-digit billions of dollars.

Then, Guy Carpenter said that, based on an analysis of the tracks of previous Louisiana storms, it believed they would cost between $2 billion and $3 billion if they occurred again today.

Another estimate came from CoreLogic last week, with this firm saying it anticipated wind and storm surge insured losses from hurricane Francine would be up to $1.5 billion.

Modelled loss runs from other leading catastrophe risk modellers were also falling within that range of up to $3 billion.

Karen Clark & Company (KCC) said today that its estimate for private market insured losses of close to $1.5 billion from hurricane Francine includes damage to residential, commercial, and industrial properties and automobiles, as well as business interruption, but does not include damages to boats, offshore properties, or any NFIP losses.

Explaining the impacts from the recent hurricane, KCC said, “The areas along and to the east of the track sustained the highest levels of damage, particularly Terrebonne Parish—which includes Houma and Montegut—where Hurricane Francine made landfall with 100-mph winds. New Orleans was spared from the highest wind speeds, which would have led to a much higher loss event, but tropical storm winds did affect the entire city. Hurricane Francine passed well to the east of Baton Rouge where relatively lower, but still potentially damaging, winds were observed.

“Storm surge levels were not high enough to overtop levees, helping to mitigate the damage. Like the wind impacts, the storm surge was highest along and to the east of Francine’s track. Terrebonne, Lafourche, and Plaquemines Parishes experienced storm surge heights of over 4 feet along their coastline and among their numerous lakes and wetlands. The coastal areas of Mississippi, including Biloxi and Gulfport, experienced similarly high storm surge levels as Francine generated strong onshore winds in this area even after making landfall. Surge even funneled up the Mobile Bay in Alabama and brought 2 to 3 feet of surge to Mobile, AL and other areas surrounding the Mobile and Tensaw Rivers.”

Also read:

– Hurricane Francine aggregate erosion to take some cat bonds nearer attachment: Twelve.

– Hurricane Francine insurance industry loss seen in range ~$1bn to $3bn.

– Hurricane Francine losses manageable for P&C insurers, minimal for reinsurance: RBC.