Hurricane Debby US private insurance market loss won’t exceed $1.5bn: Moody’s RMS

The private insurance market industry loss in the United States after recent hurricane Debby is not expected to exceed $1.5 billion, while additional losses from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) are expected to be less than $300 million, Moody’s RMS Event Response has said.

This estimate compares to one calling for hurricane Debby to result in a private and public market insured loss of up to $2 billion from reinsurance broker Gallagher Re that was issued one week ago.

As we’d reported, the expectation was that the majority of losses from hurricane Debby would fall below reinsurance attachment points, while cat bond fund managers Icosa, Plenum and Twelve had all said no direct impact to cat bonds was expected.

Jeff Waters, Director – North Atlantic Hurricane Models at Moody’s, commented, “Hurricane Debby should not be a major event for the (re)insurance market. Debby made landfall just 10 to 15 miles (16 to 24 kilometers) from last year’s Hurricane Idalia’s Florida landfall as a Category 3 hurricane. So, there is certainly some overlap of the exposures affected by both events.

“Recovery is still ongoing in some of those affected areas, but in many cases, we expect the repaired roofs to fare better with Debby, as they now reflect more recent, stringent building codes.

“Events like Debby continue highlighting the potential damage from water, notably storm surge and precipitation-induced flooding, and the need to model those sources of loss effectively when quantifying hurricane risk.

“The slow-moving nature of the storm caused excessive rainfall—in some cases beyond the 50-year return period—with subsequent widespread pluvial and fluvial flooding along the U.S. East Coast, especially Florida and the Southeast.

“Insured flood losses will be absorbed by the NFIP, especially along coastal portions of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas, where take-up rates are higher, as well as the private market. However, we expect a sizable amount of uninsured flood losses from this event, particularly in non-coastal areas where NFIP take-up is much lower.”

The Moody’s RMS loss estimate for hurricane Debby reflects property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business, and also considers post-event loss amplification (PLA) and non-modeled sources of loss.