Helene forecast for major hurricane Florida landfall, track wobbles may define the cost

Tropical storm Helene is just moving into the Gulf of Mexico this morning and the latest forecasts still call for a major Category 3 or higher hurricane Helene landfall into the Big Bend region of the Florida Panhandle, but with impacts expected for the entire west coast of Florida any track wobbles could amplify the eventual costs and losses considerably.

Already we’re seeing, via sources, modelled loss runs from some of the insurance-focused risk modelling firms, with some shared with us that show eye-watering numbers for a scenario where hurricane Helene tracks further east that expected and impacts the Tampa area more directly.

It’s worth stating, any deviation in Helene’s track that takes it significantly closer to Tampa and landfall further south on Florida’s west coast starts to bring the insurance, reinsurance, catastrophe bond and ILS market loss quantum up considerably. But right now that isn’t anticipated by the latest forecasts, although still cannot be fully-discounted at this time.

Those model runs more focused on the Big Bend area itself, where major hurricane Helene is currently expected to make landfall, show insurance and reinsurance market loss predictions in the low to mid-single digit billions of dollars.

The industry has seen a few very strong hurricanes go into the Panhandle in recent years, so knows what to expect from that scenario.

Even at the highest-end, given the lower population density and values-at-risk in the region, models can sometimes struggle to get predicted insured losses into the double-digit billions for even very intense storms.

Right now, the forecast for tropical storm Helene is that it will become hurricane Helene today and major hurricane Helene on Thursday, then intensify right up to landfall which is currently anticipated between Mexico Beach & Cedar Key, Florida likely late Thursday, but possibly early Friday if Helene slows at all.

In that scenario, Enki Research is suggesting potential economic losses in the $10 billion to $16 billion range, which would align with a roughly mid-single-digit insured loss.

Right now, he latest forecast from the NHC calls for 120 mph sustained winds and higher gusts at landfall. You can see the cone and forecast in the image below from Tomer Burg’s web resources.

There is some uncertainty in potential impacts for further down the coast, as hurricane Helene is expected to be a very large storm and will bring impacts for most of the Florida Peninsula on the Gulf side.

Impacts are expected to be felt far from the center and there is still a reasonable spread in model ensembles for the landfall location, with further east generally expected to result in higher losses.

Given the large expected size of hurricane Helene and the fact some of its strongest winds currently reside on the eastern side, impacts through areas like Tampa Bay are expected even if the landfall location remains in the Big Bend.

Tampa Bay is still forecast to experience up to 8 feet of storm surge, while it could also experience hurricane speed wind gusts, but any wobble in the track of major hurricane Helene that brings it closer to the Peninsula, or landfall further south, could ramp up the financial impacts from the storm significantly.

The wind radius for Helene is seen as above the 90th percentile for a major hurricane at this latitude, according to the NHC, showing just how unusually large the storm is expected to be.

Weather research expert Tomer Burg explained, “The reason for Helene being so abnormally large for a hurricane in the Gulf is tied to an anomalous synoptic setup, as a cutoff low unusually far south for this time of year, trapped beneath a block to its north, will induce extratropical transition for Helene quite far south.”

Burg also noted that this weather setup means Helene will be moving unusually fast for a large, major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

This might mean the top-end intensity potential isn’t higher than the current forecasts, although there is plenty of warm water fuel in the Gulf for Helene to feed on.

Land interaction is another factor in Helene’s potential to intensify, as well as in its future track, as it currently sits brushing the Yucatan Peninsula.

This land interaction on its western side could result in changes to the forecast track and cone, meaning the forecasts once Helene is in the Gulf and intensifies again to hurricane status should bring some more certainty with them.

So there remains some uncertainty and while the current NHC forecast cone suggests the single-digit billion dollar industry loss as the most likely right now, it is the wobbles in Helene’s track that will truly define its potential financial cost, as being a major hurricane this will be an intense landfall and a large storm that can push a lot of water onshore.

Inland impacts also shouldn’t be forgotten, as Helene will bring a lot of rainfall and even wind gusts close to hurricane force far inland, given its size and faster than typical pace.

The insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) industry therefore has a while to go until it can say with more certainty that the Big Bend landfall is the likely outcome and that higher-value areas such as Tampa are safer from significant impacts.

Which could mean the difference between another largely primary market retained catastrophe loss, or one where reinsurance capital is required to step in more meaningfully, with all the ramifications that has for catastrophe bonds and ILS contracts.

The latest NHC warnings state that “steady to rapid intensification” is expected for Helene, and that “Helene is predicted to grow to a very large size,” with impacts to extend far from the center, especially on the eastern side.

“Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and grow in size over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and Florida Big Bend,” the NHC states.

You can track this and every Atlantic hurricane season development using the tracking map and information on our dedicated page.