Bureau issues La Nina alert
Bureau issues La Nina alert
22 August 2022
The Bureau of Meteorology warns there is now a 70% chance that a third La Nina in a row will develop this year.
A La Nina alert has been declared, from a previous La Nina watch, as renewed cooling takes place in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
“Historically, when La Nina alert criteria have been met, La Nina has subsequently developed around 70% of the time; this is approximately triple the normal likelihood,” the bureau said.
“La Nina events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during spring and summer.”
Four of seven climate models surveyed by the bureau suggest La Nina could return by early-to-mid spring. The remaining three models maintain a neutral outlook.
Meanwhile, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues. A negative IOD is associated with above average winter-spring rainfall for much of Australia.
“All surveyed climate models indicate that negative IOD conditions are likely to continue into late spring,” the bureau said.
