Beazley CrowdStrike losses expected well-below cat bond attachment: Berenberg
Analysts at Berenberg have said today that because of the nature of specialty re/insurer Beazley’s cyber book of business, they do not feel its losses from the CrowdStrike linked IT outage will be significant and expect them to come in well below where the PoleStar Re cyber catastrophe bonds attach.
As we reported this morning, Beazley provided an update to the market saying that it does not expect any change to its combined ratio guidance after the CrowdStrike event.
As we said at the time, this implies its losses under cyber policies are not expected to be overly material to the company.
“This is clearly very positive news following the volatility BUY in the share price since Friday for a number of reasons,” the analysts at investment bank Berenberg said.
They went on to explain, “We believe that the nature of Beazley’s cyber book (which we think is not exposed to large banks, airlines and similar businesses), the hours clauses in the contracts (eight hours+) and coverage sub-limits for contingent business interruption claims due to system failure, have likely been key to limiting overall exposure to the event.
“It is not clear at this stage, whether Beazley’s XoL reinsurance and cyber-cat bonds would have attached to this event, but we think, at least for the latter, it is unlikely (Artemis reported a $500m loss attachment).”
In our article this morning we highlighted that the $140 million PoleStar Re Ltd. (Series 2024-1) cyber cat bond issuance from last December and the more recently issued $160 million PoleStar Re Ltd. (Series 2024-2) cyber bond, are both presumed to occupy a layer of Beazley’s cyber reinsurance tower attaching at $500 million in losses.
Based on early industry loss estimates that the CrowdStrike linked IT outage around the globe could cost insurers mid-to-high single digital billions of dollars, the analysts said that with Beazley estimated to have around an 8% market share, this would put its losses from the event in a range from $80 million to $120 million.
At which level the PoleStar Re cyber catastrophe bonds would certainly avoid any losses.
Berenberg’s analyst team also said, “We believe that is impressive that Beazley has managed to give an update to the market so quickly, and speaks volumes about its internal risk management practises including across its cyber division, as it managed to get on top of its exposures over the weekend and this should provide reassurance to investors.”
At the level of losses the analysts estimate Beazley could take from the CrowdStrike linked IT outage, they said this would be comfortably absorbed within its catastrophe budget or allowance.
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