2022 hurricane forecasts continue to suggest above-average seasonal activity
Additional forecasts of activity levels for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season continue to suggest an above-average year of tropical storm and hurricane formation is ahead.
New forecasts from university research groups continue to suggest an active 2022 for the Atlantic tropics, with more storms than normal reaching hurricane status.
With the possibility of La Niña conditions persisting into the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters believe this portends another potentially challenging year for US hurricane zones.
La Nina conditions persist in the Pacific and the latest ENSO forecasts suggest a 59% chance of La Niña being dominant through to August, and a 50% to 55% chance it remains right through to Autumn 2022.
Hurricane seasons are thought to be more active in a La Niña year, although how this affects steering of storms remains to be seen based on conditions at the time.
But with La Niña associated with a reduction in wind shear across areas close to the United States, it is thought hurricanes can make landfall more readily during a period of La Niña conditions, so something for the insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market to watch closely.
The latest forecast to be released by one of the teams we’ve always tracked, is from North Carolina State University.
The NC State forecasting team forecast that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will see 17 to 21 named storm, above the long-term average of 12 and the nearer-term 14. It’s even above the recent historical trend of 17 named storms for an average hurricane season over the last decade.
Out of these named tropical storms, between 7 and 9 are expected to become hurricanes, with 3 to 5 of those becoming major hurricanes, with Category 3 or stronger winds.
Again, these numbers are ahead of the averages, forecasting an above-normal level of activity for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
In addition, the NC State forecasters also provide some insights into Gulf of Mexico storm conditions for the 2022 hurricane season, predicting 3 to 6 named storms in the Gulf, 2 to 5 of which become hurricanes and 1 to 2 major hurricanes.
Historical averages for the Gulf of Mexico are said to be 3 named storms and 1 hurricane, so this is still above the trend.
Another university forecast team, although not one we track over on our 2022 Atlantic hurricane season page, is from the University of Arizona, in Tucson.
This forecast team are calling for 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, as well as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 129.
This is still slightly above the longer-term averages, although only just above median trends.
Adding the latest figures from NC State to those forecasters we track, which include a number of those tracked by the reinsurance, catastrophe bond and wider ILS industry, our Artemis average currently sits at an active 19 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 147.
It’s still a forecast for a relatively active season, which in a La Nina year, where wind shear may be lower and storms more readily steered towards the United States, means insurance, reinsurance and ILS market interests will be on-watch as the season nears.
There are more forecasts to come through the second-half of May and we’ll update our data as they are announced.
Track the 2022 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.
