Viewing World Cup success through an indexing lens

Only 25 of the approximately 200 nations and associations that make up FIFA fit S&P DJI’s definition of developed markets, Freer said. Yet these 25 countries account for more than 40% of the countries – 15 out of 32 – that qualified for the 2022 finals; they also counted for more than 60% of the teams who proceeded to the round of 16.

“While Brazil is the favorite to be in the World Cup Final on Dec. 18, 2022, form aside, it seems that countries from the developed markets cohort will have the highest likelihood of World Cup success,” Freer said, noting that six of the eight World Cup Finals held since the launch of the S&P Global BMI in 1989 have been won by developed countries.

Relative their weighting and number of companies represented in the S&P Global BMI, he said Canada, Germany, and Denmark have been underperforming in terms of their global market stature and footballing prowess, as they did not progress beyond the group stage at this year’s competition.

“While Argentina, Brazil and Croatia have outperformed their market stature, they are highly placed in their FIFA rankings—so this isn’t unexpected,” Freer added. “Surprising outperformers would be Morocco, Ghana and Senegal based on their limited investable market stature.”