Stocks Could Go Higher This Year: Siegel

Taken together, recent economic data points, including employment, housing demand and money supply, look good for corporate profits, according to Siegel.

Estimated 2024 S&P 500 profits are higher now than they were a month ago — “that’s a rare event because normally analysts are overly optimistic and the estimates trend down as time goes on. That means the economy is stronger than expected and productivity is helping profits,” the economist wrote.

The Fed and markets should be pleased with the big batch of economic data released last week and the economy’s underlying health, Siegel said.

Among other data analyses, he noted that while official hiring numbers looked low, including a 110,000 downward revision to past data, “the revisions were likely due to strikes and the closure of a large trucking firm. Many of those workers will be rehired eventually.”

A one-tenth increase in hours worked means the jobs report was not overly weak but it confirms a downward trend in the pace of hiring, according to Siegel, who also noted what he called a welcome jump to pre-pandemic labor market participation rates.

“More people in the labor force shows slack in the labor market that helps mitigate concerns for the Fed about wage inflation pressures and allows the Fed to hopefully not hike rates any further,” he added.

 Pictured: Jeremy Siegel