Here's the Size of Social Security Cuts if Congress Doesn't Act Soon: CRFB

Specifically, a low-income, dual-income couple retiring in 2033 would see a $10,600 cut, according to the CRFB. A high-income, dual-income couple retiring in 2033, on the other hand, would see their annual benefits slashed by $23,000.

“Although the cut for a low-income couple would be smaller, it would represent a larger share of their income, and so senior poverty would rise significantly upon insolvency,” the CRFB warns.

Crafting Consensus

After establishing these specific estimates, the new CRFB analysis seeks to tie the Social Security solvency issue to the current political moment in the U.S., arguing that Social Security’s funding shortfall should not be viewed as a partisan issue.

“Any 2024 presidential candidate who pledges not to touch Social Security is implicitly endorsing a 23% across-the-board benefit cut for the 70 million retirees when the Social Security retirement trust fund reaches insolvency in just a decade,” the analysis suggests.

Despite the looming cuts, the CRFB says, federal office candidates at all levels are facing pressure to pledge “not to touch Social Security.”

“While this pledge is framed as ‘protecting benefits,’ it is, in reality, an implicit endorsement of a [benefit cut],” the CRFB argues.

Ultimately, the analysis posits, the winner of the 2024 presidential election will face a Social Security trust fund rapidly approaching insolvency.

The good news, according to the CRFB and other research groups and advocacy organizations, is that lawmakers have a broad continuum of policy options that would close or reduce Social Security’s long-term financing shortfall.

Additionally, experts agree that implementing changes sooner rather than later would allow more generations to share in the needed revenue increases or reductions in scheduled benefits, thereby reducing the pain felt by individual stakeholders.

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