Goldman's Oppenheimer Sees Value in $11T Stock Rout
“While it has been realized on a lower volume profile with less panic, it is worth noting the Stoxx 600 just hit its most technically oversold level since March this year,” said Carl Dooley, head of EMEA trading at Cowen. “The last time that happened markets rallied over 10% in a straight line.”
Stocks are getting notably cheaper, as earnings growth forecasts continue to improve, while prices have plunged. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is now trading at 12 times its forward earnings, below its average forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 since 2005. It’s suffered a 22% de-rating this year, a similar valuation drop to the S&P 500.
“We have seen quite a big correction now,” Oppenheimer said. “There are inevitably times when you are going to get some of the setback rebounding.”
Other Views
Oppenheimer is not alone in seeing a floor. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic repeated his dip-buying calls on Monday, urging investors to add risk as central bank hawkishness has reached its peak. Still, the problem is that such calls by die-hard bulls have failed investors before.
Back in mid-April, Kolanovic said sentiment and positioning are too bearish, and advised investors to buy growth stocks including tech, biotech and innovation, alongside value stocks like metals and mining. The Nasdaq 100 index has ended every single week since then in the red.
For bears, such as Bank of America Corp.’s equity strategy team, the selloff may continue until October, and the S&P 500’s fall below 4,000 index points may tip it into a more severe rout as investors flee. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson has said the “S&P 500 has minimum downside to 3,800 in the near term and possibly as low as 3,460.”
‘A Perfect Storm’
Much of that concern is tied to the economic backdrop, and the growing risk of stagflation looming large over the investment outlook. Even the long tradition of markets outperforming during earnings seasons has been challenged. While corporate profits both in Europe and the U.S. came in again above expectations, the beats have failed to assuage broad concerns.
“We have a perfect storm at the moment — inflation, Ukraine war, zero Covid policy in China, normalization of monetary policy,” said Vincent Juvyns, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. Still, he insisted, “a lot is priced in at the moment” and “we may soon hit the bottom.”
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