7 Economic Predictions for a Volatile Future: Northern Trust
What You Need to Know
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reverberated throughout the world, intensifying already tight commodity markets.
The Federal Reserve’s tightening will make value stocks a better option.
Energy markets, which already are near capacity, will face increased tightness as Russia’s output drops.
The Russia-Ukraine war has increased volatility in stock and bond markets around the globe and pushed up energy and commodity prices, which has goosed inflation — already on the rise — to 40-year highs.
To give an overview of the situation, Northern Trust Asset Management chief strategists discussed in a recent webinar what to expect in markets with unexpected high inflation and post-COVID supply chain and labor shortages.
Noting that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has “reverberated throughout” the world, Wouter Sturkenboom, chief investment strategist for Europe, the Middle East and Africa and the Asia-Pacific region, said NTAM pivoted away from Europe and focused portfolios on U.S.-centric markets — equities and high-yield bonds — while using natural resources as a hedge for inflation and geopolitical positioning while turning away from Treasury inflation-protected securities.
This strategy has reduced the group’s risk exposure in the past month. And as the Federal Reserve grows more hawkish, they see that the Fed will ratchet interest rates up 50 basis points in the short term, with more increases ahead. Yet a key risk is higher inflation and lower growth.
Here are eight takeaways from Sturkenboom; Tim Johnson, fixed income chief investment strategist and portfolio manager; and Jackson Hockley, senior energy equity analyst.
1. Value stocks will outperform growth stocks.
The tightening of interest rates will weigh on growth stocks. Therefore, NTAM believes value stocks are a better option for now.
2. The geopolitical environment is highly fluid.
Russian President Vladimir Putin may be more aggressive as his plans for a swift Ukraine invasion don’t play out, possibly invading the Baltic states or other NATO countries. This may push equities lower. Also, there is an increased economic risk in China as COVID regains footing and the country once again shuts down.
3. The good news: A recession is not imminent.
The good news is that historically, there was a soft landing when the Fed raised rates and the yield curve was inverted. Now the U.S. economy is coming off real GDP growth of 5.7%, which “gives the central bankers some cushion to hike interest rates without pushing economies into a recession,” Johnson noted.
4. As monetary policy tightens, liquidity will dry up.
That said, balance sheet liquidity, from corporations to households, is generally good, largely due to the lower interest rates over the last several years. But financial transaction liquidity, or how much it costs to buy a Treasury security, has been “exacerbated” by Fed tightening and by what’s happening in Ukraine. In fact, today the cost of a Treasury security has risen to near-2007 levels. NTAM will keep a close eye on the unwinding by the Fed and its impact on the yield curve, especially in the third quarter.
5. The Russia-Ukraine war will continue to squeeze the world’s energy supply.
Global oil demand is about 100 million barrels a day and could grow to 102-103 million a day in the second half of 2022, depending on what happens in China and its COVID lockdowns, said Hockley.
