What to expect if Lee makes landfall in the Maritimes

It’s increasingly likely Hurricane Lee will make landfall in Atlantic Canada this weekend as either a strong tropical storm or a weak Category 1 hurricane.

Tracking map courtesy of Canadian Hurricane Centre

The Canadian Hurricane Centre and AccuWeather report they are increasingly confident Hurricane Lee will hit the Maritimes, even though the exact track remains uncertain.

“We expect Lee’s circulation to broaden significantly as it moves north later this week and there are no indicators at this time that the storm will be re-invigorated through merging with non-tropical weather systems,” the Canadian Hurricane Centre reported in its first public bulletin on Lee. “Also, it is possible the forward motion of the storm could slow which would permit further weakening over cooler waters before affecting land.

“Given these factors, the storm would approach the region as a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm.  The range of track possibilities is very broad this far ahead in time, ranging from somewhere in Maine to the southeast of Nova Scotia.”

Landfall appears most likely in Nova Scotia this weekend, AccuWeather chief on-air meteorologist Bernie Rayno said in a public statement. “But any waver in the track caused by non-tropical weather systems such as the high pressure to the east and the approaching jet stream could pull the hurricane westward toward New England or push it farther east toward Newfoundland and Labrador.”

Related: Hurricane Fiona insurance damage estimate revised to $800 million

Wherever Lee makes landfall, expect a lot of rain and high winds. The severity of any flooding and storm surge will vary based on where the storm makes landfall, and when.

“Near and east of where Lee rolls ashore, a significant storm surge will occur, along with the strongest winds and risk of property damage,” AccuWeather forecasts. “The rocky coastline and routine extreme tides in Maine and Canada may minimize storm surge flooding should the storm arrive near the time of high tides. However, if Lee tracks farther west, where the coastline’s slope is more gradual, it could bring significant storm-surge flooding.

“Near, north, and west of where Lee rolls inland, heavy rain will develop, causing a high risk of flooding of streams and rivers where several inches or more pour down.”

The Weather Network compared Hurricane Lee’s characteristics with those of Hurricane Fiona, which is the most costly NatCat event in Atlantic Canada’s history. Fiona hit last September as a strong post-tropical storm, causing more than $800 million in insured damage, which industry sources said would have been higher except for the fact that most insurance policies do not cover damage due to storm surge.

The Weather Network noted Fiona’s sustained winds, at 125 km/h, were stronger than those projected for Hurricane Lee, which are expected to blow at about 100 km/h to 110 km/h. And Fiona’s wave heights reached up to 17 metres in some areas, whereas Lee is expected to cause wave heights of seven metres.

“Folks across the region are understandably weary about tropical systems after the impacts of Dorian in 2019 and Fiona in 2022,” the Weather Network said on its website. “It’s likely that Hurricane Lee would not be as strong as either of those two systems if it were to hit the region.”

It’s also still possible the storm could veer further east and do most of its damage in Newfoundland, several sources noted.

Nova Scotia is no stranger to natural catastrophes in 2023.

Earlier this year, the Tantallon wildfire in Halifax forced more than 16,000 people to evacuate their homes and left thousands without power. Officials confirmed the wildfire either destroyed or damaged at least 200 properties, including 151 homes, causing more than $165 million in insured damage.

Then in July, Halifax endured a strong rainstorm event. Torrential downpours dropped more than two months’ worth of rain (between 200 mm and 250 mm) in about 24 hours on Halifax, Nova Scotia’s South Shore, and central and western parts of the province.

Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ) estimated the July storm, which hit parts of the area damaged by the earlier wildfires, resulted in more than $170 million in insured damage.

Feature image: This satellite image provided by CIRA/NOAA shows Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic Ocean on Monday, Sept. 11, 2023. The Canadian Hurricane Centre says Hurricane Lee could make landfall this weekend anywhere from Maine to southeastern Nova Scotia. THE CANADIAN PRESS/HO-CIRA/NOAA HANDOUT