What Aviva Canada’s CEO is noticing about auto theft

Preliminary indications suggest auto theft in Canada is coming down slightly in 2024, but insurers are warning success is leading to a game of whack-a-mole with car thieves.

“We’re…starting to see that,” confirms Aviva Canada CEO Tracy Garrad, who was commenting on auto theft trends in an interview with Canadian Underwriter Wednesday about the company’s half-year 2024 results.

“I think Ontario, in particular, was very responsive to the issue [of auto theft]. But it’s a little bit like, ‘Water will find a way,’ and some of the other provinces are starting to see a little bit of an uptick.”

Atlantic Canada, in particular, seems to be a place where car thieves are migrating, following anti-theft measures in Ontario and Quebec that successfully reduced their auto theft numbers, Équité Association reported last month.

Équité Association is a national, non-profit organization supporting Canadian property and casualty (P&C) insurers in the prevention of insurance crime and fraud.

In the first half of 2024, “Atlantic Canada saw an increase in auto theft of 11%, which is likely tied to the strong measures in place to combat auto theft in Ontario and Quebec, forcing thieves to look to other provinces,” as Équité states in its report.

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Overall, however, Canada’s national auto theft trends show a decrease of 17% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, Équité’s report states. “This first half of 2024 year-over-year (YoY) national decrease in auto theft means that Canada is beginning to see results from the collective efforts to reduce auto theft, and stem the flow of funds into organized crime, making Canadian communities safer.

“Notably, Ontario (-14%) and Quebec (-36%) have the largest decreases in auto theft.”

In Ontario and Quebec, where auto theft increases were most rampant in 2023, police collaboration resulted in significant busts of car theft rings, Équité observes. This was partly due to collaboration between interjurisdictional police forces, as encouraged in the federal government’s Federal Task Force on Combatting Auto Theft. It was also the result of provincial initiatives: for example, Ontario budgeting for police to start a dedicated team to combat auto theft.

But reforms to curb auto theft are only in the early stages, as Garrad notes, and the P&C insurance industry is still encouraging governments to close loopholes exploited by car thieves. For example, Insurance Bureau of Canada recently called for a national registry of Vehicle Identification Numbers (VIN) to prevent car thieves from stealing a car in one jurisdiction, registering a new VIN for the vehicle, and then selling the stolen car to an unsuspecting consumer elsewhere in Canada.

“As we continue to dig into kind of the themes and the data underpinning auto theft, we start to better understand the issue,” as Garrad told CU. “As an industry, we now have much better data showing loopholes — for example, in the shipping process — that are being exploited by criminals. And we need to clamp down on those.”

Aviva plc reported personal lines premiums in Aviva’s Canadian segment increased 14% in the first half of 2024, “driven by strong new business volumes in auto and pricing actions taken across the portfolio,” as the company reported.

Plus, an undiscounted combined ratio of 94.6% in personal lines in Canada over the first half of the year (as opposed to 98% during the same period last year) primarily reflected “an improved personal property result, and a lower impact from auto theft, though [the impact of auto theft] remains above long-term averages.” Aviva plc reported Wednesday.

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