Trends to watch in 2024: Property & casualty insurance

For personal lines, In 2024, we will continue to see a challenging market in automotive and home, as it’s trending back to pre-COVID combined rations.  

Building on the momentum from 2023, we expect to continue to see the return to profitability for personal lines with premium trends exceeding loss trends for the first time in years. This will be driven largely by the cooling of collateral protection insurance (CPI) (for example, down fourth straight month for used cars, medical care costs etc.), the execution of efficiency-focused transformation programs at most large carriers, and the early productivity gains from the adoption of Gen AI in core functions such as claims and underwriting. Market leaders will continue to extend their lead in 2024, as we will see massive productivity jumps made possible through AI and automation.

For commercial lines, overall, improved profitability through 2023 has been driven by a hard market and will likely continue into 2024. Performance for property remains challenged with rate moderation taking effect in 2024 (some buyer fatigue, lowering of purchase limits, etc). 

While casualty is expected to see further firming of rates in 2024 to keep up with loss trends, and Professional lines are expected to see a softening in 2024, including Cyber, D&O. The focus in commercial lines continues to be underwriting excellence and the infusion of Gen AI in core processes to drive accuracy in underwriting risk assessment. We expect to see continued above average growth in Specialty / E&S and MGAs.