Tesla replaces Ford as Morgan Stanley's 'top pick' in U.S. auto sector

Tesla shares jumped nearly 6.3% on Monday after Morgan Stanley named the most valuable automaker its “top pick” in the U.S. automotive industry, replacing Ford.

The brokerage said Tesla’s energy business could potentially grow to be worth more than the company’s auto business in the future, as investors were likely to focus on firms that address climate change-related issues.

It also expects Tesla to take a more dominant position in the market for zero-emission vehicle credit revenue — for which it recognized around $2,000 per unit in the second quarter — as legacy automakers pull back on their EV expansion plans.

“We estimate Tesla may account for as much as half the credit sales in the market, supporting a 100% margin business for Tesla that may not be anticipated by the investment community at this time,” Morgan Stanley analysts said.

Tesla, however, reported its lowest profit margin in more than five years last week and missed Wall Street earnings targets for the second quarter, as the Elon Musk-led firm heavily discounted its vehicles to counter sagging demand.

The brokerage flagged concerns over Tesla’s ability to commercialize autonomous driving technology in China and the future of EV demand.

Tesla has been betting on its autonomous driving technology, which has come under regulatory scrutiny over safety concerns.

Investors are keenly awaiting Tesla’s robotaxi launch event, which it had delayed to October from August to rework some elements of the car.

Meanwhile, Ford dropped nearly 2% on Monday, following a 20% slump last week after the automaker reported second-quarter profit below estimates, as it struggles with quality-related costs and stiff competition in its EV business.