Mid-Term Elections: Legislative Update for Business Leaders

Politics and policy move in cycles. The pendulum swings from growing government to a more conservative movement, less regulation to stronger oversight, Democratic leadership to Republican. It’s clear that momentum is shifting again, but the question is how far? With just a few weeks to go before the Midterm elections, the predicted outcome is still unclear.

After two years of Democrats’ unified control in Washington (their first since 2010), the Republicans are poised to recapture one or both chambers of Congress. Historically speaking, presidents with an approval rating below 50% have seen their party lose 37 House seats on average. Presidents with an approval rating above 50% still tend to lose seats, losing an average of 14. President Biden’s rating has been hovering around 40% for many months. However, there are a number of unique scenarios, which make the outcome of the current election uncertain.

The current administration has had a number of legislative victories, including a historic infrastructure bill, and the implementation of this legislation will not be impacted by the outcome of the election. However, if one of both chambers flips control, issues around government spending, supply chain and antitrust will take centerstage.

Below is an overview of some of the issues facing Congress before the end of the year..

Potential Legislation before the end of the Year:

Hurricane help: Florida is going to need a boatload of federal aid to recover from Hurricane Ian. While Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) wants the Senate to return from recess to vote on a standalone supplemental appropriation for his state.
Electoral Count Act: Both chambers want to modernize the 19th-century Electoral Count Act, designed as a safeguard against future attempts to challenge fairly decided elections. But Republicans aren’t interested in the House version of the measure and GOP leaders say they’ll only consider passing the Senate version.
Marriage equality: The House already has passed its own same-sex marriage bill. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is planning to bring up a bipartisan same-sex marriage deal.
Tax extenders: There will be taxes on the table. Democrats want to revive the Child Tax Credit enhancement. Republicans want to revive a tax benefit for businesses that allowed them to immediately write off their research expenses. Those are just two items on a larger slate of tax breaks that could be in play in the lame duck, plus further incentives for retirement savings.

Please reach out to Jen McPhillips Global Head of Government Relations for Marsh if you have any questions.Jennifer.mcphllips@mmc.com