Ernesto projected to miss Halifax, brush past Newfoundland

In what is appearing to look like a near-miss, Hurricane Ernesto’s track is bending to curve southeast of Halifax late tomorrow and brush past the south-facing coasts of Newfoundland and Labrador late Sunday.

“We expect that the track of Ernesto’s center will be well south of Nova Scotia as it travels northeastward then will approach southeastern Newfoundland later Monday,” the Canadian Hurricane Centre reports. “Since the storm circulation will be quite broad with tropical air and downpours spreading well beyond its center, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland could see at least some rain either directly or indirectly on Monday and Monday night.

“The probability of wind impacts in Nova Scotia is now very low, but there is certainly an increasing likelihood that southeastern Newfoundland could be within the storm circulation.  This will also become clearer over the weekend.”

Ernesto’s track shows the centre of the storm, currently a Category 2 hurricane, passing southeast of Halifax with winds up to 140 km/h Monday, and just off the southeast coast of Newfoundland at 110 km/h Tuesday. The forecast of Ernesto’s impact on Atlantic Canada now seems to focus more on Newfoundland and Labrador.

“For Newfoundland specifically: although not yet clear, the waves combined with the possibility of storm surge, may cause some coastal flooding along southwest-facing shorelines in the Burin and Avalon regions,” the Canadian Hurricane Centre states. “The extent of this will become clearer over the weekend.”

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AccuWeather’s seven-day forecast for St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, thus far shows peak sustained winds of 76 km/h Monday, with peak wind gusts of 115 km/h. Total rainfall in the area Monday is predicted to be between 50 mm and 100 mm.

In Halifax, only slightly more than 5 mm of rain is forecast for early Monday, according to AccuWeather, with 32 km/h winds.

Initially, Ernesto appeared to be headed straight for Atlantic Canada after passing through Bermuda on Saturday. The hurricane is expected to batter Bermuda with 155 km/h winds and between 240 mm and 480 mm of rain Saturday, with some isolated parts of the island getting 600 mm of rain.

“This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island,” the U.S. National Hurricane Center says of Bermuda.

The Weather Network noted earlier this week that most models showed the hurricane bending to brush past Atlantic Canada early next week, but now recent modelling seems to be confirming that trajectory.

If so, that would spare the Maritimes from the worst of Ernesto’s effects at a time when the Canadian P&C insurance industry is now tending to four major natural catastrophes — flooding in Ontario and Quebec, hail in Calgary, and a wildfire in Jasper, Alta. — over the span of a month.

No official claims figures for any of these Cats have been made public thus far. Industry experts are suggesting that, collectively, these four Cats alone could cost the industry up to $3.7 billion, which is more than what they paid for Cats in the whole of 2023 ($3.1 billion).

Feature image courtesy of the Canadian Hurricane Centre