Electric Big-Rigs Are Expected to Match Diesels on Running Costs by 2030

Even though the global EV transition is well underway for passenger cars, electrification of the commercial truck segment is just getting started. Pepsi is now using Tesla Semis in California. Meanwhile, Coca-Cola still seems to be fighting the Coke-Pepsi wars, with the company announcing it will start using Volvo VNR Electric trucks in Canada. It’s a start, albeit a slow one, but Bloomberg analysts say that EV commercial trucks will reach cost parity with diesel trucks by 2030, and hydrogen FCEVs will reach that point some time later.

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It seems like the commercial trucking industry is still up for grabs when it comes to alternative propulsion, with battery-electric (BEV) trucks are vying against hydrogen fuel cell (FCEV) trucks for the distinction of becoming the next big thing. Bloomberg holds both technologies in equal regard, weighing the “major drawbacks” of both, with no clear winner in sight: FCEV trucks promise long range and faster fueling; BEVs are cheaper and more readily available right now.

Photo: Volvo

Even so, charging 1,100 EV trucks at the same time for a mere 45 minutes would require the full capacity of a nuclear power plant, as Volvo Truck CEO Martin Lundstedt explains, adding, “And 1,100 trucks is nothing […] We are talking about professional equipment to be used around the clock. It’s not like with a car that is only used 2 percent to 3 percent of the available time during the day.”

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What is clear, however, is that diesel trucks will be phased out in favor of some EV alternative, sooner than later. EV big rigs from the likes of Volvo and Daimler Truck accounted for only 0.1 percent of heavy-duty trucks sold in Europe in 2021, per Bloomberg, due to the high cost of their manufacture and sale. Not to mention the scarcity of commercial truck chargers along major trade routes in the U.S., the U.K. and the EU.

But in about seven years, fully-electric trucks destined for long-haul deliveries will match the costs of comparable diesel semi tractors, analysts predict — even in spite of the lack of commercial EV infrastructure around the world. Bloomberg estimates the economics of EV trucks will be competitive with diesels by the end of the decade. Battery costs must fall for that to happen, and so must commercial EV recharging times, which are expected to be at around 45 minutes by 2035 or so.

Those in favor of EV big rigs aren’t worried over the lack of infrastructure, because companies have already started investing millions of dollars in development. Daimler, Traton and Volvo are reportedly building a network of at least 1,700 commercial EV charging stations across Europe that will cost $551 million, all told. And an increase in cheap sources of renewable energy is expected to power these EV trucks. We’ll see.

Where the commercial sector is concerned, economies of scale tend to be dominated by the most cost-effective solution, which bodes badly for diesels when (if) the time comes when EVs cost the same or less. Right now, BEVs are predicted get there first, beating hydrogen with a healthy lead. But upcoming FCEVs from Volvo, Daimler and others will likely end up joining BEVs as the industry tries to decarbonize road logistics.