At Mid-Month Mark, Tax Collections Trending Down For February

Monthly Tax Collections Have Fallen Short of State Expectations in Each of the Last Seven Months

February is generally the least significant month for state tax collection totals, but every month counts when revenues are down compared to a year ago and lag more than a quarter-billion dollars behind already-dimmed projections.

And the early signs of February collections, released Wednesday by the Department of Revenue, showed monthly collections lagging February 2023’s pace by $36 million or 3.7 percent through Feb. 15. The Healey administration’s benchmark for full-month collections is set at $2.018 billion, or $38 million more than what was collected in February 2023.

DOR says mid-month reports “should not be used to assess trends or project future revenues” since collections tend to be weighted more toward the end of the month.

“Neither individual nor business taxpayers are required to make estimated payments during the month,” DOR wrote, adding that the month typically produced 6 percent of the state’s annual tax revenue. “February is also the month in which refunds reach substantial levels as the tax filing season begins.”

Monthly tax collections have fallen short of state expectations in each of the last seven months and the widening gap led Gov. Maura Healey in January to markdown the year-end revenue estimate by $1 billion. Through January, collections of $21.460 billion were $212 million or 1 percent less than actual collections in the same period of fiscal 2023 and $263 million or 1.2 percent less than what the Healey administration projected in January that it would have hauled in by this point in the calendar.