25 cars most likely, and 25 least likely, to face future recalls

Vehicle data outfit iSeeCars is out with an interesting new calculation. It looked at recall data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and used that to create a projection of the cars that in the future will be most likely subject to further recalls. 

Last year alone, NHTSA issued 300 recalls affecting 35 million vehicles. So what will next year bring, or the year after that? Here’s iSeeCars’ assessment of how many recalls these cars might face over the course of their entire lifetimes.

Cars most likely to face future calls

Note that there are a number of Teslas and other EVs high in those ranks. In many cases, recalls on those vehicles can be done over the air, with little or no inconvenience to owners. When iSeeCars excluded OTAs from its calculation (and to be honest, we’re a little unsure how they could figure that, but they must be basing it on a past ratio of OTA vs. physical repairs), all four Tesla models and the Rivian R1S fell out of the list, while the Lucid Air moved down to the last spot. However, the Porsche Taycan and Panamera remained, as Nos. 1 and 2. 

All recalls, OTA or in the shop, are free to owners.

On the flip side, iSeeCars also created a list of vehicles that should afford you very little in the way of recall troubles — a list dominated by Lexus and Mercedes.

Cars least likely to face future calls

“If you’re hoping to avoid recall hassles, you can significantly improve your odds by choosing the right model,” said Karl Brauer, iSeeCars’ executive analyst. “A vehicle like the MINI Convertible or Lexus RX 450h has, literally, a fractional chance of being recalled even once, versus more than 60 projected recalls for the Porsche Taycan, Tesla Model Y, and Tesla Model 3. Even the industry median of 3.2 lifetime recalls sounds much better than the approximately 15-plus projected recalls for all of the cars on the most recalled list.”  

Here’s iSeeCars’ statement on methodology:

“iSeeCars analyzed vehicle safety recall campaigns as of May 7, 2024, from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) for cars from model years 2015-2024. The number of campaigns for each model was aggregated and projected for an expected 30-year lifespan, taking into account the overall behavior of the automaker and when each recall campaign was issued in the car’s lifetime. The resulting estimates were then used to rank models with the fewest and most expected safety recalls. Heavy-duty vehicles, low-volume models, and models discontinued prior to the 2020 model year were excluded from further analysis.”