What is the better insurance option?

I’ve read everything I could find and crunched the numbers but am still having trouble deciding what the best insurance plan option is for me.

Background: The open enrollment period in my company just began with insurance effective at the start of the year. I am expecting my first child in December and plan to switch to a family plan with child/spouse.

The two main plans I have it narrowed down to are a Copay (high premium/low deductible) and an HSA (low premium/high deductible).

Option 1 – Copay · Premium: about $6000/year · Deductible: $1000 · After deductible: copays · Out-of-pocket max: $5000 Option 2 – HSA · Premium: about $2700/year · Deductible: $4000 · After deductible: coinsurance 80/20 · Out-of-pocket max: $8000 · HSA employer contribution: $1500 · My max contribution: $6250

Couple of notes: -The employer HSA contribution of $1500 is for family plans ($750 for individual). So instead of waiting for the life event to occur in December, I would need to enroll under the family plan now during open enrollment so I don’t miss out of the extra $750. Knowing this insurance does not kick in until 2023 and I’ll be making the switch in December anyways, it’s no extra cost for me to switch now and then add child after the life event. That’s how it was explained to me at least.

-Copay is in-network only and HSA is in and out of network but all our doctors are in-network.

-My wife and have no additional health concerns at the moment.

It seems to boil down to if I want to pay a higher premium (with lower deductible) which guarantees that money is spent or pay a lower premium (with higher deductible) which means more out-of-pocket expenses but at least I’m also sending money to an HSA which I intend to use as needed.

Adding up year premiums and max out-of-pocket, they both would add up to around $11000 at worst. With option 1, money goes to the premiums and option 2, it’s out-of-pocket and/or HSA. At least with an HSA, I can keep what I don’t use.

It’s very likely I’m missing something but after adding up all the numbers, it’s all the same but the copay options offers more stability over the course of the year?

Looking for advice so I don’t regret my decision especially with the delivery costs being so high. Thanks in advance.