CMMI programs increased Medicare spending

That is the finding from a recent report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on the activities of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (CMMI)

CBO previously estimated that CMMI’s activities would reduce net federal spending but now estimates that they increased that spending during the first 10 years of the center’s operation and will continue to do so in its second decade.
CBO currently estimates that CMMI’s activities increased direct spending by $5.4 billion, or 0.1 percent of net spending on Medicare, between 2011 and 2020.1 (Most of CMMI’s models have focused on Medicare beneficiaries.) Specifically, CMMI spent $7.9 billion to operate models, and those models reduced spending on health care benefits by $2.6 billion. The estimates reflect CBO’s review of published evaluations of 49 models initiated over CMMI’s first decade as well as corresponding historical budget data.

And CBO predicts that CMMI that there won’t be cost saving in the next decade either.

Looking ahead, CBO currently projects that CMMI’s activities will increase net federal spending by $1.3 billion, or 0.01 percent of net spending on Medicare, over the center’s second decade, which extends from 2021 to 2030

CBO’s full report is here.