$40bn+ LA wildfire loss could disrupt retro market and potentially ILS: SCOR’s Conoscente

According to Jean-Paul Conoscente, SCOR Global P&C CEO, if insurance and reinsurance market losses from the Los Angeles wildfires reach or surpass $40 billion, the retro market could potentially face significant disruption throughout 2025.

Speaking earlier today during SCOR’s 1/1 renewal outlook, Conoscente addressed the potential impact that the LA wildfires will have on the retro market for the remainder of the year, as well as the 1/1 renewals for 2026.

“I think what we see right now is that the wildfires at $30 billion probably has little impact on the retro market, some impact, but limited. As we get to $40 billion or higher market losses, then the impact becomes more severe,” he explained.

“It impacts not only traditional retro but also potentially some of the ILS and cat bonds.

“So, you know, if the market loss for the Los Angeles wildfire ends up being on the upper side of the range, there probably will be an impact of retro which will be reflected at the 1/1 2026 renewal.”

Conoscente also explained that how the retro market looks in 2026 is “difficult to tell right now,” and that it largely depends on the loss activity that the industry sees throughout 2025.

During the call, Conoscente also provided an update on the firm’s estimated impacts from the Los Angeles wildfires, saying, “with market losses varying from $30 billion to $45 billion, we believe this will be a large but manageable loss for SCOR. Based on the information currently available, we believe the impact should be around a quarterly cat budget for Q1.

“Further information will be provided that we start receiving more information from our cedents.”

Earlier today, SCOR reported more competitive market conditions at the January reinsurance renewals, with increased capital supply being the main driver, leading it to stay disciplined in property catastrophe risks, where the firm noted that premiums were flat, but its net exposure remained slightly higher after the contract signings.