Hurricane Milton loss $30bn – $50bn. Substantial ILS impact not expected: Euler ILS Partners

Hurricane Milton is initially estimated to result in insurance and reinsurance industry losses below $50 billion, according to Euler ILS Partners, at which level the notional impact to insurance-linked securities (ILS) portfolios is not expected to be substantial.

In an event update distributed yesterday by the ILS investment manager and seen by Artemis, Euler ILS Partners, which is the new name for the now bought-out Credit Suisse Insurance Linked Strategies unit, said its initial estimate is for hurricane Milton’s losses to fall within a range from $30 billion to as much as $50 billion.

As we reported earlier this week, Euler ILS Partners pre-landfall event update on Milton had suggested a 33% chance that industry losses from hurricane Milton could have risen above $50 billion, but they also said at that time “if Milton hits as a Category 3, we could see insured losses in the range of USD 30 billion to 50 billion.”

The company expects to refine its loss estimate as more information and data becomes available.

But, as of yesterday, Euler ILS Partners said that, “Based on this initial estimate, we do not expect a substantial notional impact on our portfolios and the ILS market in general.”

Importantly, the company believes that Milton is a manageable event for the insurance, reinsurance and ILS market, although the ramifications for Florida’s insurance market are likely to be significant, especially with Milton having come so close to Helene.

Euler ILS Partners’ initial estimate aligns with what we’ve been hearing from other market sources.

As we explained earlier today in this article, our sources have been focusing on the same range, of $30 billion to as much as $50 billion, which suggests the insurance-linked securities (ILS) market has a relatively aligned view on the potential losses to be faced from hurricane Milton.

It’s also worth noting that, Jefferies analysts believe that a Milton loss below $50 billion will not be sufficient to move reinsurance pricing at the January renewals.

Also read:

– Mutual cat bond and ILS funds recover ground as hurricane Milton impact clearer.
– Milton loss below $50bn may not be sufficient to move pricing: Jefferies.
– Milton could drive property catastrophe reinsurance rates up at 1/1 2025: KBW.
– Most mutual cat bond & ILS funds slid a little further on Milton’s final approach.
– Cat bond funds can still finish the year positively: Twelve Capital’s Wrosch.
– Hurricane Milton losses likely below a 5% cat bond market impact: Icosa Investments.
– Hurricane Milton: Pre-landfall broker loss estimates ranged $15bn to $40bn.
– Hurricane Milton Cat 3 landfall in Sarasota. Worst case Tampa loss scenarios avoided.
– Hurricane Milton: Insurance, reinsurance, cat bonds, ILS ready to respond.
– Some mutual cat bond and ILS fund NAVs fall further on hurricane Milton threat.
– Hurricane Milton industry loss at $25bn+ changes pricing narrative: Goldman Sachs.
– Hurricane Milton cat bond loss potential still in wide range: Icosa Investments.
– Hurricane Milton seen denting cat bond market -1.4% (excl. surge): Plenum.
– 33% chance hurricane Milton loss above $50bn. Would drive hard market: Euler ILS Partners.
– Hurricane Milton Cat 5 again. Tracks slightly south. Uncertainty still high, loss range wide.
– Safe to say hurricane Milton likely a $20bn+ insurance market event: Siffert, BMS.
– Hurricane wind speeds forecast across entire Florida Peninsula as Milton approaches.
– Mexico’s catastrophe bond presumed safe from hurricane Milton.
– Stone Ridge leads managers cutting mutual cat bond or ILS fund NAVs on hurricane Milton.
– Hurricane Milton could be a huge test for the entire (re)insurance market: Evercore ISI.
– Hurricane Milton losses could amount to tens of billions, but uncertainty high: BMS’ Siffert.
– As hurricane Milton intensifies, Mexico’s catastrophe bond comes into focus.
– Material hurricane Milton losses could change 2025 property reinsurance price trajectory: KBW.
– Cat bond & ILS managers explore options to free cash, as hurricane Milton approaches.
– Hurricane Milton: First Tampa Bay storm surge indications 8 to 12 feet.
– Hurricane Milton is biggest potential ILS market threat since Ian in 2022: Steiger, Icosa.
– Hurricane Milton forecast for costly Florida landfall. Cat bond & ILS market on watch.