Ditching EVs For Hybrids Is Already Paying Off For Automakers

Good morning! It’s Thursday, September 5, 2024, and this is The Morning Shift, your daily roundup of the top automotive headlines from around the world, in one place. Here are the important stories you need to know.

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1st Gear: Automakers See Sales Boost With Hybrids

Hybrids have pulled Toyota out of a two-month rut and are helping Hyundai and Kia post record sales numbers for August. That’s not too shabby for a vehicle type that is quickly being seen as a really strong compromise between regular internal combustion-powered vehicles and all-electric cars.

Honda also saw sales rise in August thanks, in part, to the hybrids up and down its lineup. Sales of the brand were up 28 percent for Honda, but they were down for the eighth straight month over at Acura. From Automotive News:

Toyota said its August sales of electrified models rose 49 percent to 94,509, or almost half – 48 percent – of its U.S. deliveries during the month, nearly all of them gasoline-electric hybrids.

Hyundai said deliveries jumped 22 percent to 79,278 last month while Kia volume rose 4.3 percent to 75,217.

It was the second consecutive monthly gain for Hyundai. Hybrid models posted an increase of 81 percent last month, Hyundai said, led by two core crossovers, the Santa Fe, up 120 percent, and Tuscon, up 97 percent. Fleet represented 7 percent of August volume, or about 5,550, the company said.

Kia said its crossover deliveries jumped 9 percent, while EV sales rose 27 percent, driven by the new EV9 three-row crossover, and plug-in hybrid volume increased 43 percent, with overall deliveries of electrified vehicles advancing 9 percent.[…]U.S. auto sales are projected to rise 7 to 8 percent last month, based on estimates from Cox Automotive, S&P Global Mobility and J.D. Power/GlobalData. Average transaction prices are falling as inventory rises and incentives increase. August also had 28 selling days, one more than August 2023, and five weekends, including Labor Day weekend, traditionally a key period for promotions and sales.

Hybrids are also sort of hurting EVs, aided by competitive pricing that is cannibalizing EV sales. Battery-powered cars and light trucks will account for just nine percent of industry deliveries in the U.S. this year. That’s down from the previous forecast of 12.4 percent.

These types of cars are just in very high demand right now. Auto News says some Toyota dealers tell them that customers are waiting two or three months just to take delivery of a new hybrid.

I still think that eventually EVs will take over, but customers and infrastructure just aren’t there yet. Until then, hybrids are a fantastic middle ground.

2nd Gear: BMW’s Hydrogen Car Is A Few Years Away

At this point, hydrogen-powered consumer vehicles seem like an all-but-dead idea, but that isn’t going to stop BMW from giving it a go. The German automaker is planning to sell hydrogen-powered vehicles in just four years time in an effort to establish the tech as an alternative to battery-electric vehicles.

BMW isn’t doing this alone, though. The company is teaming up with Toyota (which has been making hydrogen-powered cars for a long time now) to get the tech off the ground. Production is slated to start in 2028 with hydrogen variants of existing BMW models available that year. From Bloomberg:

While BMW has for years pursued the technology, cars with a fuel cell are struggling to take off because of high costs and a lack of fueling infrastructure. There’s also very little choice, with Toyota’s Mirai and Hyundai Motor Co.’s Nexo among the few models available. Global sales of hydrogen cars declined to just 9,000 units last year, according to BloombergNEF.

Proponents of fuel cells point to long driving ranges and argue the technology can prove effective in regions where battery-charging infrastructure isn’t strong enough to support a transition to EVs. They burn hydrogen to produce electricity and emit only water.

BMW and Toyota plan to make hydrogen powertrains together for use in models from both carmakers. They expect that joint development and parts procurement will help drive down costs and make the technology more competitive. BMW declined to comment on prices for its future hydrogen cars.

BMW has operated a small test fleet of hydrogen-powered iX5 sport utility vehicles since 2023. Chief Executive Officer Oliver Zipse has previously said that hydrogen drives might be an option for BMW’s “Neue Klasse” line of EVs due to launch next year.

“We are convinced that hydrogen will play a more important role in the future,” Michael Rath, who heads BMW’s hydrogen-vehicle program, told reporters during a call on Thursday.

I’ve actually driven a hydrogen BMW prototype, an X5. It was quite a good crossover. I really hope someone can figure out how to make hydrogen work on a consumer scale because it’s a really neat piece of technology that could make a big difference as we move further away from fossil fuels.

3rd Gear: UAW Recognized At GM Ultium Battery Plant

The United Auto Workers union gained a major win after a battery manufacturing joint venture between General Motors and LG Energy Solutions agreed to recognize the union at a plant in Tennessee. Now, about 1,000 employees will gain union representation. You really do love to see it, folks. From the Detroit Free Press:

The UAW said a majority of the workers at the Ultium Cells facility signed cards to join the UAW and the company had agreed to recognize their union after workers at an Ohio Ultium plant overwhelmingly voted to join the union in 2022 and won a new contract earlier this year with significant wage hikes. The companies did not immediately comment.

[…]

GM’s battery operations were a point of contention in last year’s UAW contract negotiations, during which the union held strikes at plants across the Detroit Three automakers for six weeks.

The automaker eventually agreed to let its Ultium battery plants come under the union’s master agreement once a majority of workers decided to unionize.

“The UAW members at Ultium and VW are proving that the new jobs of the South will be union jobs,” Tim Smith, director for UAW Region 8, which includes Tennessee, said in a statement provided to the Detroit Free Press. “In the battery plants and EV factories springing up from Georgia to Kentucky to Texas, workers know they deserve the same strong pay and benefits our members have won. And we’re going to make sure they have the support they need to win their unions and win their fair share.”

This latest win is part of UAW President Shawn Fain’s $40 million nationwide organizing effort meant to expand the union’s influence. It’s been targeting non-Big Three automakers like Toyota and Tesla.

4th Gear: German Unions Gear Up To Fight Volkswagen

Here’s some more union news since I’m feeling very solidarity-pilled this morning.

Germany’s biggest union is going to do everything in its power, including moving to a four-day workweek, to counter Volkswagen management’s talks about closing a domestic plant for the first time in the automaker’s history. The move by VW would also trash decades-old job guarantees. From Reuters:

Volkswagen said on Monday it was considering taking the unprecedented step of closing factories in Germany and ending job guarantees at six of its plants in a drive to deepen a 10 billion euro ($11 billion) cost-cutting plan.

Asked if the union would consider a four-day week as an alternative option, Christiane Benner, chair of IG Metall nationwide, said it was “conceivable”. “We will leave no idea unexplored,” she said.

Still, it was impossible to lay out detailed proposals without more information on what solutions the company was proposing, she added. “We need forward-thinking ideas on where potential can be found,” Benner said. “VW has survived difficult situations before.”

Volkswagen executives said on Wednesday at a packed staff meeting in Wolfsburg that it has “maybe one, two years” to turn its main car brand around to survive electrification.

The auto giant faces a vexing landscape of challenges including slowing demand for cars and particularly EVs, rising competition from China, and a complex governance structure that some investors and analysts say slows decision-making in times of crisis.

Thorsten Groeger, head of IG Metall for the German region where Volkswagen is based, pointed to the fact that agreements stuck between the company and unions during previous rough times were designed specifically to get the automaker through them. It should not turn its back now.

As part of another cost-cutting drive in 1993, board member Peter Hartz agreed with unions and the works council to introduce a four-day week of 28.8 hours from 1994 onwards, a 20% reduction in working time with a smaller cut in pay.

Widely seen as an innovative model to save 30,000 jobs at its six German plants, the two-year agreement was adapted in subsequent years until management decided in 2006 it was hurting competitiveness and moved away from it.

Speaking to German broadcaster NDR, Stephan Weil, premier of the state of Lower Saxony which houses five of the six plants currently protected by job guarantees, said the carmaker must find a way to share the burden of the crisis fairly.

“In 1993 and 1994 we had a serious crisis that shook up everyone involved… something like that could once again be the basis for an agreement,” Weil said of the agreements struck with unions at the time.

Negotiations are set to begin in mid- or late October, and a strike isn’t out of the question for the end of November. The union is pushing VW to bring a timeline forward to quell some of the fears of its members. Understandable.

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