ACA premium subsidies: what if our income drops to below Medicaid threshold only late in the year – do we owe back ALL the subsidies?

We've received $491/mo in premium subsidies for our ACA plan based on our household income up until June. My wife gave birth in June, and we're thinking of taking 3-5 more months off work (we don't have paid maternity/paternity leave).

From January to June, the $491/mo subsidies was the correct amount based on our monthly income during that time. But since our monthly income has been 0 as of June, our income will soon drop below the threshold of Medicaid eligibility (some time in October, if my calculations are correct).

So my question is, if our January to June income was ~$4500/mo, but our income from July to December is 0, such that our entire combined income for 2024 is below the Medicaid threshold, do we owe back the ~$6000 in premium subsidies we would have received throughout the year?

If so, that doesn't make much sense. I know the idea is that they don't want people who are eligible for Medicaid to enroll in ACA plans and get subsidies when they could just go on Medicaid. But we would only become eligible for Medicaid in ~October 2024. We couldn't have gotten on Medicaid before then even if we tried. Why would we get our premium subsidies clawed back due to eligibility for Medicaid during a timeframe when we weren't eligible for Medicaid?

I'm hoping someone can clear this up for me. The ACA representative didn't know the answer.

Thanks!

submitted by /u/HelmedHorror
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