AccuWeather forecasts above average US impacts in 2024 hurricane season
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could result in an above average number of direct impacts to the United States, with the Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas all facing a higher-than-average risk this year, AccuWeather has said.
The latest seasonal forecast for the 2024 hurricane season from AccuWeather meteorologists is calling for 20-25 named tropical storms to form across the Atlantic basin in 2024, with 8-12 expected to become hurricanes and four to seven forecast to become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater.
Perhaps more notable for insurance, reinsurance, catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) interests is the fact AccuWeather’s meteorologists are calling from between 4 and 6 direct impacts to the United States from tropical cyclones this season, higher than the average of 4.
“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct U.S. impacts,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva explained.
“All signs continue to point toward the upcoming season being worse than the last, with the potential for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to rank as one of the most active in history,” AccuWeather further stated.
“Sea-surface temperatures are well above historical average across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the Main Development Region [for hurricanes],” DaSilva added.
Conditions are forecast to result in “frequent development” of tropical storms, with the potential for rapid intensification also seen as elevated this year.
The forecaster also notes that conditions in the Pacific are “in the process of quickly flipping from El Niño, when temperatures in this area are higher than historical averages, to La Niña,” which could have significant implications across the Atlantic Ocean as La Niña can result in lower wind shear.
“It can be helpful to visualize a stack of pancakes,” DaSilva said. “A tall, neat stack is what a tropical system wants to be, but wind shear can cause some pancakes to be displaced and the stack could fall over.”
AccuWeather notes that, “The faster the transition to La Niña occurs, the more active the hurricane season is likely to be.”
DaSilva also noted that, given the forecast conditions for during the hurricane season in the Atlantic, “There is a 10-15% chance of 30 or more named storms this year.”
AccuWeather also forecasts that Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) could reach between 175-225, well above the historical average of 123 for the season.
As for where on the US coastline residents should be particularly vigilant through the 2024 hurricane season, DaSilva said, “The Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season.”
AccuWeather warns of the potential for the 2024 hurricane season in the Atlantic to be “explosive” saying that, “A super-charged hurricane season could spawn a near-record number of storms in the Atlantic this year, and forecasters may even run out of names for storms amid a frenzy of tropical systems.”
AccuWeather is just the latest forecaster with a prediction for an extremely active season and also highlighting the potential for landfall risks to be elevated, compared to the historical norm.
But, like every year, all eyes in the insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) interests will be on the tropics, as it only takes a single landfall in an area of high coastal exposure during the season for impacts and costs to be elevated.
Track the 2024 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.
