England have statistically peaked as Wales predicted to win

Authored by QBE Head of Media Relations and Content Sandra Villanueva

According to forecasts by QBE Business Insurance, England are set to endure a disappointing home defeat against Wales on Saturday.

After a sluggish start to the tournament against the Italians in Rome, where England scraped a win by three points, Steve Borthwick’s side return to Twickenham where the QBE Predictor forecasts a frustrating narrow defeat. A youthful Welsh side almost completed one of the most impressive comebacks in the tournament’s history as they came from 27-0 down to lose by a solitary point to Scotland last week. The second half performance showed great promise and they will be hoping the momentum carries them over the line in South West London this weekend.

Wales have not won at Twickenham in the Six Nations since 2012 so to do so will be an impressive feat, especially with such an inexperienced side. England have been victorious the past two times the teams have faced each other in the tournament but given their mediocre start to this year’s championship confidence will not be running high at HQ.

In the other second round fixtures the QBE Predictor gives France a 58% chance of victory as they travel to Edinburgh, looking to bounce back from a discouraging defeat to Ireland. In the last match of the weekend tournament favourites Ireland, buoyed by an impressive performance in Marseille, host an improving Italian side at the Aviva Stadium. Despite an encouraging result against England, the QBE Predictor gives the Italians only a 3% chance of victory in Dublin.

David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said:

“The Predictor picks an inexperienced Wales side to win away at Twickenham for the first time in the Six Nations since 2012, underlining the point that we must be prepared for surprise outcomes. The Predictor also forecasts an Ireland Grand Slam and they will go one step closer with a win over Italy this weekend. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for unexpected events, the players and coaches should be preparing for unlikely occurrences and how to take advantage too.”

Round Two score predictions:

Score Prediction

Outcome Probability

Home

Away

Home win

Away win

Draw

Scotland

21

24

France

40%

58%

2%

England

22

24

Wales

45%

53%

2%

Ireland

46

13

Italy

96%

3%

1%

Tournament Predictions:

Winner

QBE Predictor

Ireland

78%

Scotland

9%

France

6%

England

4%

Wales

3%

Italy

0%

The QBE Predictor simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, and the international experience of each team captain.