S&P 500 Rises as Stocks Build on Record High

The so-called call wall has moved to 5,000 points from 4,800 — signaling that traders see the market clearing the next hurdle toward further gains, according to SpotGamma data. That points to a further 3.3% of upside, based on Friday’s close.

“We may just get the upside follow-through that we too to signal that last week’s breakout to new all-time highs in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 has been confirmed,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.

“We do need to point out that both indices are reaching overbought levels, so they could take a breather at any time. However, as long as any ‘breathers’ do not become severe reversals, the bulls have a lot going for them right now,” he added.

The Ned Davis Research Leading Indicator Model — based on 10 indicators that typically lead the S&P 500 — has already been flashing bullish for most of the past year. The majority of the components are price-based and include one on sentiment with two others on macroeconomics.

Although the model is just off its highs, with four of the seven bullish indicators starting to weaken including financials, volume demand and weekly new highs on the New York Stock Exchange, the key gauge still points to equity strength.

The latest warning for investors unleashing dovish monetary wagers across the board: Two thirds of Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse respondents said that betting on early monetary easing is the “most foolish” among popular trades heading into 2024.

Even as the S&P 500 closed Friday at an all-time high, money managers and analysts are contending with data that signals US economic resilience and Federal Reserve officials who’ve pushed back against reducing interest rates too soon.

Two major Wall Street firms are recommending investors start buying five-year US notes after they saw their worst rout since May last week.

Morgan Stanley sees scope for a rebound in Treasuries on expectations data in the coming weeks may surprise to the downside.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is suggesting investors buy five-year notes as yields have already climbed to levels last seen in December, though it warned that markets are still too aggressive in pricing for an early start to central bank interest-rate cuts.

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