Canterbury researcher creating new models to protect against wildfires

Canterbury researcher creating new models to protect against wildfires | Insurance Business New Zealand

Catastrophe & Flood

Canterbury researcher creating new models to protect against wildfires

Models are unique in their ability to simulate real-time conditions across specific locations

Catastrophe & Flood

By
Kenneth Araullo

University of Canterbury (UC) atmospheric dynamics associate professor Marwan Katurji is developing advanced modelling systems designed to predict the spread of wildfires more accurately.

These systems, which incorporate local weather conditions, are a response to the increasing threat of wildfires, exacerbated by climate change. New Zealand has experienced wildfire-related costs amounting to $82 million since 2017.

Katurji, who has served as an expert witness for the Port Hills fire and is currently examining the Lake Ōhau fire incident, emphasised the significance of his work in light of climate change’s impact on increasing fire risks across various regions in New Zealand.

The models, Katurji said in a news release, are unique in their ability to simulate real-time conditions for specific locations, a feature that distinguishes them from traditional models offering broader, less precise weather predictions.

Current models typically overlook local variable weather conditions, which can lead to discrepancies in weather forecasting and its implications for fire spread. Katurji’s work seeks to address this by providing more localized and accurate predictions, particularly pertinent in areas like Canterbury where existing models may fail to accurately represent actual weather conditions.

Katurji’s vision also extends beyond wildfire prediction, with the hope that these models will aid in firefighting strategies and fire engineering. One practical application he foresees is their use by Fire and Emergency New Zealand for real-time fire movement analysis, which could significantly enhance firefighting efforts.