American Carbon Emissions Are Down To 1991 Levels, No Thanks To Transportation

Image: Marijan Murat (AP)

Preliminary estimates for 2023 indicate that despite a 2.4 percent increase in United States gross domestic product, nationwide greenhouse gas emissions fell by 1.9 percent. Not only did U.S. emissions remain about six percent below pre-pandemic numbers, but are actually matching the numbers we saw back in 1991. The transportation sector — the number one factor in American greenhouse gas emissions — increased its emissions by 1.6 percent in 2023, largely due to increased plane travel and more miles driven.

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Much of the overall decline has been a result of the cleaning up of our electric grid, as the power sector reduced its emissions eight percent in 2023. Coal has taken a back seat as the country saw a record year for solar installations, though natural gas is growing at an even faster rate than renewables. The residential and commercial buildings sector, likewise, saw a reduction in energy use and the resulting emissions by some four percent. A milder-than-average winter means homes and businesses required less fuel for heat, in particular. These are small wins that should be celebrated, but we can certainly be doing more as a nation to clean up our air. Emissions probably aren’t falling quickly enough to meet climate goals under the Paris Agreement.

Across 2023 transportation emissions increased 1.6 percent, as fuel consumption continues to inch closer to 2019 use levels. Traffic volumes increased 2.2 percent in the first three quarters of the year, as Americans hit the road in droves. Likewise, air travel was up significantly in 2023, with available seat miles on commercial flights rebounding not only to pre-pandemic levels, but beyond 2019 numbers. Overall, diesel demand is down almost 3 percent, while gasoline demand went up one percent, and jet fuel bumped five points over 2022 (which itself saw a 14 percent rise over 2021).

Demand for gasoline on the increase is interesting in light of the fact that U.S. electric vehicle sales hit new highs, and new cars are more fuel efficient than ever. It would seem that the number of miles driven increased by more than fuel economy improved. The Biden Administration’s plan to increase fuel economy by 2 percent per year for new cars seems almost necessary in light of American driving habits.

In order to meet Paris Agreement targets by 2030, the U.S. will need to reduce overall emissions by 6.9 percent every year between now and 2030. I guess we’d better hope for a lot more mild winters.