S&P 500 to Hit 5,200 Next Year: Strategist
The firm’s 2024 target is based on expectations of 9% earnings growth and a price-to-earnings ratio multiple of around 21.7, in line with the current valuation level.
Stoltzfus’ prediction for big gains in 2024 follows ultra bullish forecast from Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research, who sees the S&P 500 hitting 5,400 points by the end of next year, and 6,000 by 2025.
A resilient consumer and job market, as well as slowing inflation and more dovish central bank rhetoric, are spurring expectations that the US economy will make a soft landing next year.
Bond markets are currently pricing Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as early as the first half, something Stoltzfus sees as “too rosy.”
“We believe the Fed wants to avoid pushing the economy into a recession,” Stoltzfus wrote. “Our expectations are for the Fed to wait to cut its benchmark rate until at least the second half of next year and perhaps as late as the fourth quarter should inflation prove stickier.”
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