Buying directly from the provider instead of through the marketplace?

TLDR is at the bottom.

I 29F am looking to buy health insurance for the first time. I’m currently unemployed and live in a state that didn’t expand Medicaid, so I don’t qualify for Medicaid.

Although I’m hoping to find a job in the next few months, I truly have no idea what my income for 2024 might be. I’ve been trying to do my research and I read that on the marketplace I’d have to estimate my income and then update my application if I estimate wrong. I also read that I could owe money during tax time if I estimate wrong but had received subsidies. I saw some random people warn that buying insurance through the marketplace can also end up with the IRS auditing you?

All this has me stressed out. I’m worried that I’m going to get in trouble if I estimate my income completely wrong on the marketplace application. So I’m wondering if buying directly from the insurance company would be simpler. I know I could possibly save money on the marketplace but I’m more concerned about what’s simpler than what is cheaper. I don’t want any fuss. I just want to buy a plan with a set premium and not stress about potential problems arising based on my income during the next year.

One thing I have noticed is that almost no one mentions buying directly from the insurance provider. Is that simply because of the potential savings from subsidies or is there other reasons people recommend buying from the marketplace and not from the provider? I already know I have to double check that I enroll in an ACA compliant plan if I buy directly from the provider.

I primarily only expect to be using my insurance for preventative care services which are covered 100% on an ACA compliant plan as long as I stay in network so I think I could reasonably afford a bronze or silver plan without subsidies. I’m estimating that would on average range between $5,000-$8,000 per year?

Please let me know if there’s something I seem to be unaware of or if buying directly from the provider is a good solution for me as long as I am careful about the plan I select.

TLDR: unemployed, live in state that didn’t expand Medicaid, worried if I estimate 2024 income on marketplace application completely wrong that I could get in trouble with the government/IRS, want to know if buying directly from an insurance company would be simpler even if it might cost more.

submitted by /u/LibraDust
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