20 Worst States for Excess Q3 Deaths

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Overall U.S. mortality was more than 10% higher in the third quarter than it was during the comparable period before the COVID-19 pandemic began.

Analysis of U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention death counts shows that the total number of deaths in the third quarter was 773,354.

That was down 10.6% from the total recorded from July through September 2021, but up 13.6% from the total recorded in the third quarter of 2019 — before the COVID-19 pandemic hit the United States.

For a look at the 20 states with the worst increase in the number of deaths between the third quarter of 2019 and the latest quarter, see the gallery above.

For data for all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, see the table below.

What It Means

Life may be returning to normal, and life insurers may report a sharp decrease in pandemic-related death claims, but, for now, excess mortality may still be high enough to throw off the longevity projections used in efforts to help clients buy life insurance, analyze post-retirement income needs and allocate funds for purchases of annuities or other income-generating arrangements.

The CDC Data

The CDC report used here provides statistics for deaths of people of all ages from all causes.

COVID-19 itself is one of many factors that could be increasing mortality.

Other factors could include the after-effects of COVID-19; the health damage COVID-19 has caused to people not known to have had COVID-19; the effects of social distancing restrictions and pandemic response efforts on the economy, people’s emotional well-being and the health care system; the side effects of COVID-19 vaccines and treatments; and other drivers, such as outbreaks of influenza and other illnesses not caused by the virus that causes COVID-19.

Fourth Quarter Statistics

The CDC’s state-level death count statistics take months to firm up.

The earliest available numbers, which come from the CDC’s weekly flu reports, show that the total number of deaths occurring in the first three weeks of the fourth quarter was down 6.1% from the total recorded for the comparable period in 2021 but 10.1% higher than in the comparable period in 2019.

Total U.S. Deaths in the Third Quarter

2019
2020
2021
2022
Change from 2019
Change from 2021

Alabama
12,740
16,486
17,885
14,192
11.4%
-20.6%

Alaska
1,052
1,275
1,636
1,354
28.7%
-17.2%

Arizona
14,404
20,584
19,050
17,246
19.7%
-9.5%

Arkansas
7,513
9,415
10,605
8,665
15.3%
-18.3%

California
62,458
78,694
76,964
73,672
18.0%
-4.3%

Colorado
9,423
10,649
11,591
10,947
16.2%
-5.6%

Connecticut
7,469
7,512
8,147
8,125
8.8%
-0.3%

Delaware
2,312
2,521
2,626
2,680
15.9%
2.1%

District of Columbia
1,483
1,611
1,653
1,588
7.1%
-3.9%

Florida
49,215
66,508
76,792
58,142
18.1%
-24.3%

Georgia
20,637
27,268
30,226
23,830
15.5%
-21.2%

Hawaii
2,837
3,053
3,458
3,199
12.8%
-7.5%

Idaho
3,357
4,138
4,723
4,219
25.7%
-10.7%

Illinois
24,820
27,751
28,638
27,234
9.7%
-4.9%

Indiana
15,624
17,660
19,049
17,669
13.1%
-7.2%

Iowa
7,259
8,216
8,107
7,810
7.6%
-3.7%

Kansas
6,269
7,192
7,678
7,002
11.7%
-8.8%

Kentucky
11,450
13,243
15,375
13,034
13.8%
-15.2%

Louisiana
10,910
14,438
16,024
11,963
9.7%
-25.3%

Maine
3,559
3,797
4,040
4,037
13.4%
-0.1%

Maryland
11,812
13,394
12,981
12,696
7.5%
-2.2%

Massachusetts
13,911
13,652
14,624
15,033
8.1%
2.8%

Michigan
23,242
25,180
25,780
26,070
12.2%
1.1%

Minnesota
10,899
11,631
11,994
11,882
9.0%
-0.9%

Mississippi
7,583
10,392
11,142
8,720
15.0%
-21.7%

Missouri
15,580
17,875
19,888
16,707
7.2%
-16.0%

Montana
2,494
2,788
3,318
2,983
19.6%
-10.1%

Nebraska
4,046
4,485
4,543
4,392
8.6%
-3.3%

Nevada
6,290
7,979
8,876
7,387
17.4%
-16.8%

New Hampshire
2,942
3,146
3,267
3,431
16.6%
5.0%

New Jersey
17,373
17,769
18,772
18,553
6.8%
-1.2%

New Mexico
4,515
5,308
5,717
5,139
13.8%
-10.1%

New York
23,580
24,288
26,101
25,603
8.6%
-1.9%

New York City
12,762
12,832
13,871
14,018
9.8%
1.1%

North Carolina
22,721
27,277
29,782
26,293
15.7%
-11.7%

North Dakota
1,756
1,869
1,865
1,877
6.9%
0.6%

Ohio
29,379
33,218
33,849
31,601
7.6%
-6.6%

Oklahoma
9,358
10,825
12,875
10,715
14.5%
-16.8%

Oregon
8,775
9,738
11,854
10,303
17.4%
-13.1%

Pennsylvania
31,537
33,955
34,638
33,260
5.5%
-4.0%

Puerto Rico
7,154
8,174
8,493
8,926
24.8%
5.1%

Rhode Island
2,522
2,534
2,617
2,589
2.7%
-1.1%

South Carolina
11,830
16,262
16,517
14,069
18.9%
-14.8%

South Dakota
2,033
2,284
2,250
2,151
5.8%
-4.4%

Tennessee
17,891
21,735
24,702
20,447
14.3%
-17.2%

Texas
48,737
69,740
71,889
57,326
17.6%
-20.3%

Utah
4,555
5,439
5,915
5,387
18.3%
-8.9%

Vermont
1,290
1,438
1,712
1,618
25.4%
-5.5%

Virginia
16,563
18,970
20,205
19,293
16.5%
-4.5%

Washington
13,546
15,334
17,924
16,668
23.0%
-7.0%

West Virginia
5,299
6,064
6,955
6,361
20.0%
-8.5%

Wisconsin
12,941
14,027
14,463
13,890
7.3%
-4.0%

Wyoming
1,137
1,334
1,508
1,358
19.4%
-9.9%

TOTAL
680,844
812,947
865,154
773,354
13.6%
-10.6%

MEDIAN

13.8%
-7.0%

(Image: Elise Amendola/AP)

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