10 Risks That Could Crash the Global Economy in 2023

10. Russia-Ukraine conflict turns into a global war

EIU assessment: Very low probability; very high impact

The war in Ukraine could become a global conflict, pitting Russia against NATO members. The war carries particular risks for NATO member states that border Ukraine and Russia, which could be inadvertently drawn into the conflict. Russia has readied its nuclear deterrence forces and could target critical infrastructure. In case of retaliation from NATO countries, the risk of a miscalculation cannot be discounted.

Prospective and existing NATO member states such as Poland, Romania, the Baltic states, Finland and Sweden are the most likely trigger points. Moldova is another potential flashpoint.

The consequences of a global conflict would be devastating. The global economy would fall into deep recession, with severe human consequences and large-scale fatalities. Such a confrontation could assume a nuclear form, with catastrophic consequences for major cities in Russia, the U.S. and Europe.

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