Social Security COLA for 2023 Estimated at 9.6%

When Will the 2023 Social Security COLA Be Announced?

There are only two months of consumer price data left before the Social Security Administration announces the COLA for 2023. The Senior Citizens League expects the SSA to announce it on Oct, 13, after the release of the September consumer price index data.

The Social Security Administration uses average inflation in the third quarter, based on the CPI-W, to calculate the benefit adjustment for the following year. 

Medicare Part B premiums may not grow very much next year, according to Johnson, who doesn’t expect an announcement until mid-November.

July Inflation Numbers

The gasoline index fell 7.7% in July after an 11.2% increase in June, offsetting increases in the food and shelter indexes, which resulted in the all-prices index being unchanged for the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. After rising 7.5% in June, the energy index fell 4.6% in July; the gasoline and natural gas indexes declined while the electricity index rose. 

The food index increased 1.1% in July after a 1% gain the previous month, the seventh straight monthly rise of 0.9% or more. The food at home index rose 1.3% in July, with all major grocery food group indexes climbing, led by nonalcoholic beverages, the bureau reported.

The index for all items excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in July, a smaller increase than seen in April, May and June, the BLS reported. Indexes for shelter, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, new cars, recreation, and household furnishings and operations increased over the month, while the airfare, used vehicle, communication and apparel indexes were among those registering declines.

For the 12 months ended in July, inflation on items excluding food and energy increased 5.9%, the same increase logged for the year ending in June.

The BLS stated that over the past 12 months the energy index rose 32.9%, a smaller increase than the 41.6% rise for the year ended in June. The food index gained 10.9% over the same period, the largest increase since the period ending May 1979.

The shelter index rose 0.5% in July, slightly less than the 0.6% in June. For the last 12 months, the shelter index increased 5.7%, contributing about 40% to the overall increase in all items excluding food and energy.